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URGENT Bitcoin Price Prediction!!! (The HALVING Tells ALL) - YouTube
Channel: BitBoy Crypto
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everyone wants to predict the future so
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smart people dig into the data plot
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patterns they feel can shut a light on
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the future price action of an asset
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Bitcoin is no exception we see many
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tools being created for trying to
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predict the price of Bitcoin we've had
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lengthening Cycles stock to flow and
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even tracking the moon cycles for a
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while this Dr flow model was considered
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the industry standard for bitcoin price
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movement for the 2021-2022 Bull Run
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broke it
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but there is one model that has
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continued to hold strong and it's the
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one that's actually built into Bitcoin
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itself
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the having get educated on it let's get
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it
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going halving cycle is so far the best
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indicator for where the price of Bitcoin
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is headed just a quick recap before we
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get into my prize predictions
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the having refers to the block reward
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miners get when they solve the hash for
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a Bitcoin block the reward started at 50
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Bitcoin per block but it drops every
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four years today the reward is 6.25 BDC
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and in 2024 it'll be cut in half to
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3.125 the having creates a supply shock
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that works its way through financial
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markets and leads to massive bull runs
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as the market adjusts to the dwindling
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Supply
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how much is the having affected the
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price of Bitcoin
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we're taking a look back at the previous
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cycle Behavior can show us what Bitcoin
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might be up to so let's take a look the
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bull run in 2013-2014 was epic and it
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was one of the biggest ever for Bitcoin
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when it comes to percent gain from the
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bottom to the first top Bitcoin ran up
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almost 2 000 percent from thirteen
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dollars to its first top of 249 on April
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10 2013. this was the first formation of
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something similar to a blow off top
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which would happen for real on November
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30th 2013. Bitcoin ran up again and
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topped out at
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1163 this was in the middle between two
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havings remember that now let's get into
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the data from there Bitcoin entered a
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bear Market that lasted several years
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this was all during a long wind up for
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the traditional markets this is a
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pattern that will repeat even to this
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day that the price of Bitcoin May
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fluctuate with the markets but it's Bull
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and Bear Cycles are not connected to the
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greater traditional markets the
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following bear Market was brutal Bitcoin
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fell backwards down the stairs down 86
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percent from its all-time high
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finally hit a bottom here on January 14
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2015 at 152 bucks
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take another
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1180 days to find another all-time high
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in the middle of its bear Market Bitcoin
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hit its third having on July 9th of
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2016. shook the block reward down to
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12.5 BTC from 25 Bitcoin per block let's
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lay the groundwork for another bull run
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this one dubbed the Ico season where
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projects like ethereum came onto the
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scene Bitcoin broke its previous
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all-time high on February 23 2017
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reaching
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1193 dollars now here is where we start
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seeing real patterns emerge the Ico
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season Bull Run lasted 297 days and
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peaked on December 17 2017 to reach a
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new all-time high of 19
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666 dollars from there was another 80
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drop that took 362 days to play out all
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this price action happened during a bull
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market in Trad five
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so where does this leave us in 2022
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the Market's bearish for sure we've seen
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massive pullbacks over the past few days
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things in part of the faltering economy
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into the implosion of the Terra Luna
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stablecoin UST but even with all this
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turmoil Bitcoin is holding true to its
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cyclical nature let's take a look at the
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numbers to find out where we are headed
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this bull run ended up with a second top
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of 69k on November 10 2021. so if we
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track the previous cycle times to the
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bottom to make an educated guess as to
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where the bottom will be for this bear
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Market
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but there's a bit of a wrinkle in this
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math
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this bull run didn't get a blow off top
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with Max euphoria
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that's these inverted V shapes on the
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charts
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2021 didn't act the same way and there
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are reasons for that lots of liquidity a
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pandemic tons of Leverage trading and
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institutional money really bogged down
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the price action not to mention any Elon
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Musk tweeting about the environment
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Bitcoin was behind where it should be
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based on previous Cycles which is 24 453
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dollars
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but the slack in the line was taken up
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just hours before this recording When
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Bitcoin went down to 25k
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in 2014 it took 407 days to go from the
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top to bottom 2018 it took slightly less
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time 362 days from the top to the bottom
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we averaged these two dates 407 and 362.
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we get 384 days to the bottom of the
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bear Market that would be November 28
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2022 but if the Cycles played out in
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accordance with the midterm elections we
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should bottom out on December 22nd
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bring up the midterms because that is
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shown to be a bearish inflection point
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for Bitcoin and the stock market in
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general there's a run-up beforehand in
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the dump afterwards you can see on this
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chart when elections happened and how
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Bitcoin reacted
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it's not 100 correlated but there is an
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obvious pattern here
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brings me to the price
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there are two scenarios at work here
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both are based on previous cycle
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behavior and at the moment we don't have
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a reason to doubt it
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if Bitcoin is ahead of schedule and we
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aren't going to see an 85 correction
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that it stands to reason that Bitcoin
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has found its bottom and will slowly
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slide backward to 25 500 around November
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28th
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but if we do continue on track and are
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going to see an 80 to 85 Max Payne bear
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Market that I can see Bitcoin hitting 10
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366 dollars on December 22nd
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since Bitcoin has gotten back on the
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cycle schedule I feel like this
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unfortunately at this point is a very
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likely scenario
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this is a once in a lifetime opportunity
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though make sure to keep your powder dry
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and remember the harder the pullback the
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more power is coiled up to get into the
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next Bull Run that's all I got be
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blessed good boy out
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[Music]
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