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Explaining College Football Teaser Bets - Sports Betting Basics and How-To Guides - YouTube
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Welcome to this GamblingSites.org sports betting
how-to video.
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Iām Drew Goldfarb, and today weāll be
breaking down āCollege Football Teaserā
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bets.
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Whether youāre betting on football, baseball,
basketball, hockey, or anything else, make
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sure to check out GamblingSites.org for all
of your sports betting needs.
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So before we get into the strategy for making
College Football Teaser bets, letās break
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down what they are, exactly.
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Teasers are a type of Parlay bet where the
lines are moved in your favor.
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In exchange for the sportsbook helping you
by shifting the lines, the payout odds are
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going to be lessened.
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You can make Teaser bets on either the point
spread or on the Total, also known as the
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āOver/Underā, lines.
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For our examples in this video, weāre going
to be focused mainly on Point Spread Teasers.
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Since this is a type of Parlay wager, that
means youāll be betting on multiple games
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as part of a single wager.
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If you need to brush up on Parlay betting,
you can find a link to our How-To guide on
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that in the description below.
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You can also check out our guide to placing
NFL Teaser bets by clicking on that link in
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the description.
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While college football teaser betting offers
a different strategy, we recommend watching
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the NFL guide video prior to watching this
one.
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The main idea of basic teaser strategy is
to place teasers that go from a loss to a
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win on point spreads, which in the NFL means
fully crossing 3 and 7 at the best odds possible.
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While that works for the NFL, itās not the
same for college football.
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In the NFL, the margin of victory for a large
percentage of games ends up somewhere between
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3 and 7 points.
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The reason that that concept doesnāt work
for college football Teasers is simply because
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the 3-to-7 point margin of victory is only
about two-thirds as common in college games
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as it is in the NFL.
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So how do we adjust?
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When our experts did some datamining, they
discovered that two similar, but different
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subsets seem to work.
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The first subset is betting underdogs that
are in the +1.5 to +2.5 range, where the betting
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total is LESS THAN 47.5.
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The second subset is betting favorites that
are in the -7.5 to -8.5 range, where the betting
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total is LESS THAN 47.5.
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The difference here is key, as itās the
addition of a Totals cap that helps make the
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increase in cover rate potentially profitable.
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The idea is that games with a lower amount
of projected scoring may be less volatile
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with margin of victory.
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We do want to point out that datamining like
was used to create those subsets can be dangerous
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when itās taken as a sure-thing.
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The sample sizes used to determine these numbers
are not and can not be big enough to avoid
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potentially large swings based on year-to-year
results and statistics.
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There is an entire section of our article
on College Football Teasers dedicated to this
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on our website that Iād recommend checking
out, and the link to that is in the description.
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If you really want to beat college football
teasers, then a better method for the favorites
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starts with removing vig from the moneyline.
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There is going to be a significant amount
of math involved here, and a lot of numbers,
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so feel free to pause, rewind, and review
if you need to.
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Thereās a no-vig calculator on our website
that weāll be using to help with calculating
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the no-vig odds.
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Letās use a hypothetical game between Ohio
State and Michigan as an example.
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Here, OSU is favored to win by 8 points, with
each team at the standard -110 odds.
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The moneyline, meanwhile, show the Buckeyes
at -310 and the Wolverines at +280.
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Using our no-vig calculator, we find that
the no-vig moneyline is -287.27, which has
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a no-vig win probability of 74.18%.
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That tells us that the market is giving Ohio
State a 74.18% chance of winning.
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ā¦ From here, we look back to the point spread.
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Ohio Stateās spread was -8, so in our 6-point
teaser, weād have them at -2.
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Our database shows about a 2.5% push rate
in college football on a -1 spread, and a
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1.8% push rate on a -2 spread.
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Since weād lose on a 1-point result, and
weād push on a 2-point result, we have to
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subtract the 2.5, and half of the 1.8, from
Ohio Stateās market odds of winning.
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That leaves us with a cover rate of 71.59%.
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So what do you do with that number?
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Well, in that example, teasing Ohio State
in a 3-team, 6-point, +180 teaser is considered
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ā+EVā, while teasing them in a 2-team,
6-point, -110 teaser is ā-EVā.
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Why?
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Because in order to break even long-term,
you need a 70.95% success rate on 3-team,
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6-point teasers at +180, and Ohio Stateās
71.59% is better than that.
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However, for a 2-team, 6-point teaser at -110,
you need a success rate of 72.37% to break
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even, and the Buckeyes fall short in that
regard.
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Betting on Teasers is a pretty advanced technique,
and you should make sure you fully understand
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them before attempting to place your first
Teaser wagers.
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Make sure to read our articles on āNFL Teasersā
and āCollege Football Teasersā, as well,
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for more information so you can have the best
and most-thorough understanding possible before
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heading to your sportsbook or online betting
site.
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ā¦ ā¦ ā¦ ā¦ Thatāll do it for our āCollege
Football Teasersā guide.
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Be sure to like, share and subscribe, and
keep checking out GamblingSites.org for more
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picks, tips, and of course how-to guides.
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Iām Drew Goldfarb, thanks so much for watching.
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Iāll see you next time.
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