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Buy Kare Ya Sell | Effect Of 2019 Elections Results On Stock Market By CA Rachana Phadke Ranade - YouTube
Channel: CA Rachana Phadke Ranade
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Hello friends, CA Rachana Ranade here and
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I welcome you all to my YouTube Channel.
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I was getting many requests, "Please make a video on Impact of Elections on Stock Market"
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So I thought, why not give my prediction of these results.
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Watch this video till the end to know my predictions.
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Before giving any predictions, I think
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we should look at the past and
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then predict what will happen in the future.
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If you see at 2009 elections,
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The government which came to power came with a thumping majority.
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And the market gave fabulous returns.
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In a single day, markets jumped 17.7%
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This is called Upper Circuits.
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To understand the concept of the Upper Circuit,
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you should watch my video 'Basics of Stock Market'
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which is available on my YouTube channel.
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17% bullish move in a single day,
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Is very rear scene in Stock Market.
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If you recall 2014 Elections,
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a strong BJP Government got into power.
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Which resulted again in a 5.5% movement in the Market.
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If we talk about Intraday movement on both days,
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the term Intraday Volatility means,
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how much the market moves up and down in one day.
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If we only focus on this, you may get to know that,
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during Election Results market fluctuates.
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If you are afraid of fluctuations,
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you need to invest cautiously.
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How to invest cautiously?
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During Elections, you should think of the long term rather than of short term.
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at least think medium terms.
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Why do you think of one day?
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Let me tell you a simple Data Analysis,
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Any Investor who had Invested during 2009,
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and remained Invested in the Stock Market,
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for the next 6 months,
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he would have enjoyed a return on 38% in just 6 months.
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Similarly, if an Investor had invested in 2014,
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and stayed in the market for up to 6 months after Election results.
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the investor would have earned a 16% return.
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So my understanding is that,
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If you want to Invest after elections,
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and want the minimum risk.
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please don't invest all at one time.
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invest in small amounts,
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so that even if the market fluctuates,
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you will be at minimum risk.
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Now, you have to decide,
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what is your risk taking capacity.
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I will give you one example,
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to explain the meaning of risk-taking capacity.
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Definitely, you would have watched '3 Idiots'
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Which has three characters,
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First is Ranchoddas Chanchad played by Amir Khan,
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Farhan Qureshi played by R Madhavan
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and Raju Rastogi by Sharman Joshi.
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Three of them have different income levels,
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they all come from a different financial background.
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You may remember the scene where Virus starts to explain blackboard.
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How Rachoddas Chanchad's family income large,
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Then he starts comparing the family income of all three of them,
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Then he confronts Raju Rastogi with the issue of his low family income.
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Now, you think of an Investor of Raju Rastogi's category,
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Enters the stock Market during election results,
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and if he loses in this volatility,
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then you can imagine,
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why he would not get another chance to invest.
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all his saving would vanish.
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If you come from the lower, middle or higher middle-class financial background,
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Please, understand I don't want to comment on someone's financial condition.
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My intention is that you should self assess,
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If you have surplus money,
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on which you can take some risk,
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then on you should trade or Invest
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during Election Results.
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If you don't have surplus money,
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if you are from low-income group category,
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do not risk your money with short term view.
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You would have observed that in 2009 after the formation of strong government,
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the market has given a handsome return.
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Also in 2014 after elections, the market has given a good return.
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what there is a Strong Government in the center.
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I am not saying that either Congress or BJP is better for the market,
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I am not here for any political agenda,
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I am just trying to explain that in 2019,
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any party wins with a good majority,
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the probability of markets making new highs increases.
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And I have said historically,
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in the last 2 to 3 elections market have,
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given good returns in the first 6 months.
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It has a very good reason,
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in early days of a government,
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work is done rapidly.
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which brings good enthusiasm in the markets.
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Please share your views on Elections results, and comment down below.
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And If you have any specific video request,
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write in the comment section.
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I will tell you a very small tip,
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to chose which stock will be good after election results.
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Consider BJP wins with a good majority
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What you can do?
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Party releases a Manifesto which includes its plans.
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Details of work that will be done, areas which will be on focus
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Let me tell you a simple example,
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If election manifesto includes a plan to build roads,
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you can consider Infrastructure companies for investment,
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If the BJP government thinks it should work on the Power sector,
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So you should see which companies are in the power sector.
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and shortlist them, and after performing fundamental analysis on them,
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you should think of investing.
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If you want to learn more about Fundamental Analysis,
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I will be posting a few videos on Fundamental Analysis.
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Keep watching my channel and,
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everybody says it, so why should I resist,
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Please Subscribe to my channel and hit the bell icon Thank You!
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