Kyoto, ou tard - #DATAGUEULE 51 - YouTube

Constraints without constraints is ruining climate.

Hello.

Kyoto, ex imperial capital of Japan, its majestic temples, its million and a half inhabitants and its famous protocol.

Passed in 1997, already 18 years ago, the goal of this protocol was to quickly reduce global green house gas emissions.

In the text, all the signatory states committed to a quantifiable reduction of emissions.

A reduction calculated from the level of emission of 1990.

Europe, for example, committed to an 8% reduction compared to 1990, spread out on the globality of the states composing it.

Japan was aiming at 6% and USA at 7%.

The main goal was to reach a global reduction of 5% for the main emitters of that time.

2014, results are announced.

Global emissions dropped by 24%,

the signatory states exceeded the original aim of 5%.

So here we are ? are we saved ?

before cracking open a champagne bottle lets look what is hiding behind this bubble.

Already in 1997 the USA refused to sign the protocol.

Goodbye the promise of a 7% reduction.

The world biggest polluter goes back to polluting without any constraints. Too bad..

In 2011, its northern neighbour, the Canada, gives up as well.

This damn protocol could be responsible for the loss of thousands of job and billions of dollars. Change is expensive..

The good thing is that the protocol allowed Canada to leave.

Talk about constraints..

Yeah sure, but the remaining countries did a hell of a job, right?

Not all. The data of the former USSR states are biased for example.

The reference year to calculate the reduction was 1990.

A year after the fall of the Berlin’s wall.

Yet the European communist regimes took down the industries in their fall. And since these industries produced less, they emitted less.

Therefore, in 1997, when the states sign the Kyoto protocol, the Czech Republic already emits 30% of CO2 less compared to 1990.

Bulgaria and Romania are at 50% less and Latvia near 66% less.

By keeping the USA and Canada in the Kyoto protocol and by calculating the stop of the growth in the former USSR, the results is not the same..

Instead of the glorious 24% of reduction, we end up with a 6,4% increase of greenhouse gases. Bitter victory.

Realistically, to reach the reduction goals each state gives away emission permits to the businesses on its soil.

And bonus gift, the Kyoto protocol plans an exchange system for those permits.

Since 2005 only Europe set this carbon stock exchange.

The businesses who managed to reduce their emissions are able to sell their carbon credit to those who are still polluting.

That way, the efforts to pollute less are financially rewarded and the businesses polluting more pay more.

In theory.. The idea is virtuous solely if the price of the carbon ton is high.

At 30€ the ton, like in 2005, at the beginning, you better reduce your emissions because polluting costs a lot.

The problem is that the exchange rate melted faster than the Arctic’s ice.

End 2006 the CO2 ton went under the 10€ line and by the end of 2007 under 3€.

Why change when polluting permits are almost free ?

that’s a way to stop the machine..

and it doesn’t end there. Between 2008 and 2011, Arcelormittal, giant of the steel industry received 352 millions of CO2 tons as emission permits.

But these permits are based on an estimation of the future production of the business. In the mean time the financial crisis went through.

Arcelormittal reduce its activity and emitted only 228 millions of CO2 tons. Remains a nice 128 millions of tons in the carbon balance of the giant.

In 2010 and 2011 Arceloremittal partly sold the permits, gaining 211 millions of Euro.

Being one of the biggest CO2 emitter in France is beneficial..

And since 1997 world has changed.

China and India are the new world’s factories, welcoming the polluting occidental industries.

In 2005, when the Kyoto protocol came into effect, China became the world’s biggest CO2 emitter with 6 billions of tons, just ahead from the USA.

A dyad joined by India in 2009, 3rd largest world emitter. And guess what ?

this trio is not part of the Kyoto protocol.

In 2012 the first part of the protocol officially ended.

Since then no other international tools fighting against the global greenhouse gases level came into effect.

After this half defeat we have to get up and do it all over again. Differently.