Day Trading is a Negative Sum Game | Why Most Day Traders Lose Money - YouTube

Channel: Financial Intelligence

[8]
In this video, I want to talk about the fact that day trading stocks is in reality a negative
[16]
sum game.
[17]
The term negative-sum game describes situations in which the total of gains and losses is
[25]
less than zero mainly because the party that facilitates the game charges both players
[33]
for their participation.
[35]
What this means is that since there are costs associated with day trading, the total amount
[43]
gained by winning day traders is less than the total amount lost by losing day traders.
[52]
In other words, the day trading community in aggregate is unprofitable because there
[59]
are many costs that they need to pay in order to participate in the game.
[66]
"The house always wins" is a popular saying describing how casino games have an inherent
[73]
bias toward the casino, or "house" (described as the "house edge").
[79]
In the case of day trading, the house is the collection of financial institutions and the
[85]
government that makes day trading possible.
[89]
Since they will charge both winners and losers, they have an inherent edge.
[95]
Gamblers or day traders in this case might win from time to time, but in the long term
[102]
and in aggregate, they will lose.
[105]
In this video, I want to share with you three main costs associated with day trading that
[112]
make this activity a negative sum game.
[117]
If you like the type of content that I provide, consider subscribing to the channel and give
[122]
a thumbs up and hit the notification Bell so that you won't miss any of my future videos.
[129]
Cost #1: Transaction costs Now that commission-free trades for stocks
[135]
are the industry standard among top online brokerages, many people assume that there
[142]
is no transaction cost involved when stocks change hands.
[147]
Nothing could be further from the truth.
[151]
In reality, there are a lot of players who are involved in facilitating these transactions
[158]
and all of them make lots of money.
[161]
The real transaction costs are hidden to give traders the illusion that it is free to buy
[169]
and sell stocks and to entice them to increase their trading frequency.
[175]
The transition costs are one of the main reasons why day trading is in fact a negative sum
[182]
game rather than a zero-sum game.
[185]
The transaction costs are hidden from day traders because they are included in the bid-ask
[193]
spread for the most part.
[195]
As you know, there is always a difference between the price that you pay for stocks
[201]
when you buy them, in other words the ask price, and the price that you get for your
[207]
stocks when you sell them, in other words the bid price.
[211]
For example, if you buy a share of company XYZ for $100, the person who sold it to you
[219]
will receive only say $99.5 and the financial institution that facilitates the trade will
[229]
pocket the delta.
[231]
The bid-ask difference is the price that day traders pay for the transaction.
[238]
Online brokerages that offer commission-free trades, charge day traders hidden commissions
[246]
through imposing larger bid-ask spreads which usually go unnoticed.
[252]
Cost #2: Short-term gain taxes
[256]
Day traders who make money during a tax year are supposed to pay taxes on their gains.
[264]
Since most day traders rarely hold their positions for longer than a year, their profits are
[271]
taxed at the short-term capital gains tax rate.
[276]
Short-term capital gains and losses are those realized from the sale of investments that
[283]
you have owned for 1 year or less.
[287]
Short-term profits are taxed at your maximum tax rate, just like your salary, up to 37%
[296]
and could even be subject to the additional 3.8% Medicare surtax, depending on your income
[305]
level.
[306]
On the other hand, day traders who lose money on aggregate from trades done during a tax
[312]
year are allowed to reduce their taxable income up to $3,000 in non-investment income.
[321]
The reason that I mentioned this limit is to show you that day traders who make money
[328]
are taxed on the full amount of their gains with no limit.
[333]
However, day traders who lose money are allowed to write off only up to $3,000 of those losses.
[343]
Therefore, assuming that the amount of gains by winning day traders and losses by losing
[351]
day traders are equal, the government also makes money from day traders.
[357]
That is because the government taxes the winners at the short-term capital gains tax rate and
[366]
allows the losers to only write off a small fraction of their losses.
[372]
Cost #3: Miscellaneous costs There are also miscellaneous costs associated
[377]
with day trading that are paid by both the winners and the losers.
[383]
The first one is the amount of time invested in day trading.
[388]
Many hours are dedicated to watching the charts and analyzing trends.
[395]
Since those hours could be spent on other activities, there is an opportunity cost associated
[401]
with day trading.
[403]
The second cost category is the amount of money spent on courses, books, and tools.
[411]
Many traders invest a significant amount of money on buying courses and tools that are
[417]
supposed to help them become successful day traders.
[421]
Last but not least, there is a cost associated with the mental energy invested in day trading.
[430]
Day trading is an activity that can significantly drain your mental energy and cause excessive
[437]
stress.
[438]
The health cost of engaging in day trading is something that many day traders overlook.
[446]
In summary, I believe that day trading is a negative sum game.
[450]
That is not to say that there are not any successful day traders out there.
[457]
However, I believe that it is a very competitive game and only a handful of people can become
[464]
successful at it.