Why All Americans Should Be Investing In Bonds - YouTube

Channel: unknown

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INTRO: Over the past few decades,聽聽
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bonds have fallen out of favor. The average聽 person isn鈥檛 even aware of what exactly bonds are聽聽
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while investors avoid them like the plague.聽 This is quite ironic given that the biggest聽聽
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companies in the world often do the exact opposite聽 holding tens of billions if hundreds of billions聽聽
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in bonds. For example, we often hear that Apple聽 has nearly $200 billion in cash on hand, but this聽聽
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is rather misleading because they don鈥檛 actually聽 hold anywhere near this amount in cash. Apple聽聽
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actually only holds $28 billion in cash. The聽 rest of Apple鈥檚 money is held in what are called聽聽
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marketable securities which are basically聽 just bonds and other fixed income assets.聽聽
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Apple currently has $23 billion in short聽 term marketable securities and $141聽聽
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billion in long term marketable securities. In聽 fact, a few years ago, Apple was the 23rd largest聽聽
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US treasury investor in the world beating out most聽 countries. And if you take a look at the other聽聽
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leading companies in the world, you鈥檒l find a very聽 similar story. Google, for instance is currently聽聽
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holding $113 billion in marketable securities. So,聽 here鈥檚 why these companies hold the vast majority聽聽
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of their cash in marketable securities and why all聽 Americans should be investing in bonds as well.
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BONDS EXPLAINED:聽
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Before we jump into why bonds could be a favorable聽 investment, let鈥檚 first recap what exactly bonds聽聽
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even are in the first place. Bonds are basically聽 IOU statements handed out by governments and聽聽
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corporations around the world. Whenever these聽 entities need money to build a road or a new聽聽
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factory, they鈥檒l issue these IOU statements聽 and they鈥檒l promise to pay a certain amount of聽聽
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interest rate until they pay back the full amount.聽 So, you as the bond holder are basically a loaning聽聽
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agency to these massive entities. Usually, the聽 vast majority of bonds are sold to institutions聽聽
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like pension funds and other countries like聽 China, but this isn鈥檛 on purpose. In fact,聽聽
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governments around the world would prefer to聽 issue their bonds to their citizens. This way,聽聽
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they鈥檙e paying interest to their citizens instead聽 of China or Russia. Most governments actually go聽聽
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out of there way to ensure that their bonds聽 are easily accessible to the average person.聽聽
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The US government, for example, guarantees that聽 they鈥檒l offer you atleast $5 million worth of each聽聽
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bond every single time they issue bonds. In other聽 words, you don鈥檛 have to compete with the big聽聽
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institutions and countries unless you鈥檙e buying聽 more than $5 million worth of treasury bonds on聽聽
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a regular basis. It鈥檚 not just the federal聽 governments that are issuing bonds either.聽聽
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Usually, most areas will issue their own bonds聽 to fund a local dam or highway. These are called聽聽
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municipal bonds and they鈥檙e a great way to earn聽 money while supporting your local communities.聽聽
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Also, interest payments earned from municipal聽 bonds are exempt from federal income taxes and聽聽
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sometimes also state and local taxes as聽 well. And if you live in a high tax area,聽聽
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this could make the interest earned from聽 these bonds far more valuable. For example,聽聽
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if you鈥檙e taxed 40%, a municipal bond that pays聽 back 3% would actually be equivalent to a regular聽聽
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investment paying back 5%. Anyway, moving onto聽 corporate bonds, this is where you鈥檒l face the聽聽
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most amount of competition because companies聽 generally offer the highest interest rates and聽聽
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they issue a limited number of bonds. But if聽 you stick with large corporations like Apple聽聽
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who regularly issue billions bonds, it shouldn鈥檛聽 be too hard to get your hands on these either.
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SECURITY:聽
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Alright, now that we鈥檝e discussed the basic聽 premise of bonds, let鈥檚 take a look at why they鈥檙e聽聽
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worth owning. By far the biggest advantage聽 of bonds and especially US treasury bonds聽聽
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is their safety. In fact, treasury bonds are so聽 safe that the interest earned from these bonds are聽聽
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considered risk free. I mean, this shouldn鈥檛 be聽 that surprising given that a country like the US聽聽
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has virtually no risk of default because they can聽 just print money to pay back their bond holders.聽聽
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This means that you鈥檙e basically guaranteed to聽 make money if you simply hold till maturity. And聽聽
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this is why marketable securities are generally聽 just considered cash. Now, if you try to exit your聽聽
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investment early, you may be looking at a loss聽 depending on how the bond market is doing at the聽聽
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given time. But, if you hold till maturity, it鈥檚聽 basically like earning interest from a savings聽聽
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account which is unfortunately non existent聽 nowadays. Corporate bonds on the other hand聽聽
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are by no means risk free, but one positive is聽 that their risk is always clearly defined. You聽聽
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can look at a companies annual earnings, their聽 profit margins, and their balance sheet to get聽聽
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a pretty good idea of how likely they are to聽 pay back their debt. And, if you don鈥檛 want to聽聽
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do that, you can take a look at risk ratings from聽 reputable companies like S&P or Moody鈥檚. Usually,聽聽
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these ratings separate corporate bonds into聽 two sections which are investment-grade bonds聽聽
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and non-investment grade bonds. For our purposes,聽 we鈥檙e mainly going to focus on investment grade聽聽
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bonds. These ratings are super stringent and AAA聽 ratings are basically never handed out. In fact,聽聽
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there鈥檚 only 3 corporations in the entire world聽 that have a AAA rating which are Apple, Microsoft,聽聽
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and Johnson & Johnson. Also, Apple didn鈥檛聽 even join this list till the end of last year.聽聽
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Something else to note is that if these聽 companies due collapse for some reason,聽聽
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you鈥檙e one of the first people who are paid out聽 after liquidation. According to section 507 of聽聽
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the bankruptcy code, the first people who are paid聽 out are secured debt holders who have collateral.聽聽
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But, after these guys are paid out, bond聽 holders are next in line. Meanwhile,聽聽
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shareholders are last in line and they鈥檙e聽 usually not paid very much if anything. So,聽聽
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if you鈥檙e looking for safety, stability, and聽 security, bonds are definitely the way to go.
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YIELD:聽
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One of the biggest criticisms against bonds is聽 that their yields aren鈥檛 that high nowadays,聽聽
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but I don鈥檛 this is exactly true. Sure, bond聽 yields will never be as high as stock returns,聽聽
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but that鈥檚 because you鈥檙e taking on substantially聽 more risk and volatility by investing in stocks.聽聽
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All assets are directly correlated to the risk聽 they carry, so it鈥檚 not fair to say that bonds聽聽
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as a whole are not worth it simply because they聽 offer lower returns than stocks. Not to mention,聽聽
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there鈥檚 plenty of bonds that offer great聽 yields if you do your research. Likely聽聽
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the most underrated bond in the entire聽 world is I-series bonds. I-series bonds聽聽
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are inflation protected bonds that are聽 issued by the US government, and they鈥檙e聽聽
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specifically designed to ensure that you make聽 a return even after accounting for inflation.聽聽
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And given that inflation is sky high right now,聽 so are yields on I Bonds. Right now, I Bonds are聽聽
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paying out a whopping 9.62% and you have up聽 until October to buy at these interest rates.聽聽
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If you didn鈥檛 notice, that鈥檚 literally higher than聽 the average return of the S&P 500. Now of course,聽聽
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if inflation goes down, so will the returns聽 on I-bonds, but you鈥檒l never be losing money聽聽
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to inflation. In other words, this is a prefect聽 store of value that鈥檚 backed by the US government.聽聽
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The only catch is that you can only buy $10,000聽 worth of I-bonds every calendar year. But, for the聽聽
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average person, if you鈥檙e also maxing out your聽 401k and Roth IRA every year and building up a聽聽
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larger emergency fund, like any responsible person聽 should do, this limit is likely more than enough.聽聽
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Also, if you do want to buy more bonds, there鈥檚聽 plenty of solid options if you do some digging.聽聽
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Take this Oracle bond for instance. This bond聽 matures in May of 2025, and at current prices,聽聽
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you can lock in a yield over 4%. And that鈥檚 just聽 for holding 3 years. If you鈥檙e willing lock in for聽聽
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a longer period like 20 years, you can buy this聽 2039 Oracle bond that currently offers a 5.79%聽聽
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yield. Some other high yielding investment聽 grade issuers include McDonald鈥檚, AT&T, Boeing,聽聽
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and Fedex. So, clearly, if you look deep enough,聽 you can still find bonds that yield over 5%.
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USE CASES:聽
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One of the biggest shortfalls聽 of most arguments against bonds聽聽
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is that they almost always compare bonds to聽 stocks or real estate. But, the flaw with this聽聽
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argument is that bonds don鈥檛 have to be treated as聽 a replacement to stock or real estate investing.聽聽
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Rather, they could be treated as a replacement to聽 cash. After all, basically every major corporation聽聽
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out there holds the vast majority of their cash in聽 marketable securities. Also, regardless of how low聽聽
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bond yields go, they will always be higher than聽 the yields offered in savings accounts. Now, I鈥檓聽聽
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not suggesting that people hoard cash just so they聽 can invest in bonds. The number 1 thing that the聽聽
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average person should be doing with excess savings聽 is investing in S&P 500 in my opinion. However,聽聽
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this doesn鈥檛 mean that there鈥檚 no room for bonds.聽 There鈥檚 plenty of use cases in which bonds make a聽聽
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lot more sense than cash. One example is saving聽 up for a house. Right now, the median price of聽聽
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a house in the US is $428,000. Let鈥檚 say this is聽 your first house and you鈥檙e looking to buy right聽聽
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underneath the median at $400,000. To come up聽 with a 20% down payment, you would need $80,000.聽聽
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There鈥檚 also closing costs, moving聽 costs, and new furniture expenses,聽聽
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so let鈥檚 say you budget out $100,000 for this聽 new house. And to achieve this, you鈥檙e looking聽聽
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to save $20,000 per year for 5 years. If you were聽 to simply leave this money in a savings account,聽聽
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you might be able to earn 0.5% per year.聽 At this rate, you would earn about $1200聽聽
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in interest by the time you buy the house. Now,聽 what if you invested in Boeing bonds instead?聽聽
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Boeing obviously isn鈥檛 going anywhere in the next聽 5 years, and you can earn about a 5% yield with聽聽
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this Boeing May 2027 bond. This yield will slowly聽 fall with time as we get closer to maturity.聽聽
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So, while you may be locking in a 5% yield during聽 your first 12 months of saving, you鈥檒l probably聽聽
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only be locking in 1% during your last 12 months聽 of saving. To keep things simple, let鈥檚 just say聽聽
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that you average a 3% yield throughout the next 5聽 years. At this rate, you would earn $7,600 by the聽聽
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time you鈥檙e ready to buy your house. That itself聽 could be enough to pay for your closing costs.聽聽
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And this logic doesn鈥檛 just apply to saving for聽 a house either. It makes sense whenever you need聽聽
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money on a set date or whenever you have excess聽 cash reserves. Maybe you have $50,000 set aside聽聽
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for a car, but you鈥檙e waiting for the next model聽 to release in 6 or 12 months. Putting this money聽聽
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in reliable bonds would be way better than just聽 holding cash. Clearly, while bonds may not be聽聽
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a great substitute for stocks or real estate,聽 they can be a phenomenal substitute for cash.
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OPPOSITION EXPLAINED:聽
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Despite all these benefits, many people including聽 even Warren Buffett claim that bonds aren鈥檛 that聽聽
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useful in the current market environment. But, the聽 thing to note about virtually everyone who claims聽聽
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this is that they鈥檙e not comparable to the average聽 person. Warren Buffett has averaged 20.5% per year聽聽
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from his stock investments since 1965. So, he鈥檚聽 obviously not going to be thrilled about a bond聽聽
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that鈥檚 paying 5% per year. But, for the average聽 person who isn鈥檛 a stock market genius and may聽聽
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not even have any investments at all, bonds could聽 be a great alternative to just having all of their聽聽
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money in a savings account. Also, bonds could聽 be a great introduction to investing in general.聽聽
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The everyday person is usually intimated by the聽 stock market because earnings reports and balance聽聽
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sheets seem complex and hard to understand.聽 But, bonds are extremely straightforward. You聽聽
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loan money to the government or the most reputable聽 companies in the world, and they pay you back with聽聽
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interest by a certain date. As long as you hold聽 till maturity, you don鈥檛 have to worry volatility聽聽
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or fluctuating interest rates or any of that.聽 And starting to earn money through bonds may be聽聽
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exactly what the average person needs to make聽 the plunge into stocks and take investing as聽聽
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a whole more seriously. And that鈥檚 why I think聽 all Americans should be investing in bonds, but聽聽
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that鈥檚 just what I think. Would you guys invest in聽 bonds? Comment that down below. Also, drop a like聽聽
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if you think I bonds are underrated. And of course聽 consider joining our discord community to suggest聽聽
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future video ideas and consider subscribing聽 to see more questions logically answered.