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The 2022 Recession: A ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY - YouTube
Channel: Mark Tilbury
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if i told you we're on the edge of a
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recession dip after dip after dip and
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then gave you a look inside my
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businesses it's costing me more than
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ever to get hold of that would lead me
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to retracing my steps during the 2008
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financial crisis it was a huge shock to
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the system when the crisis hit in 2008
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allowing us to find out whether this is
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a spiraling nightmare or the financial
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opportunity of a lifetime hi guys it's
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mark so you're an investor and you're on
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a mission to find the best place to put
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your money and increase it over time
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where are you putting it well things
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aren't looking good this is how rocky
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the stock market was in the first
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quarter of 2022 dip after dip after dip
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it's like being on a roller coaster only
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less exciting this is actually the worst
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start to the stock market in more than
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80 years but that's just a graph what
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this really represents is thousands of
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people just like you and me having their
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investments battered almost every stock
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is down which means every day we're just
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staring at a sea of red hoping that
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things will go back to the days of
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positive returns so maybe the stock
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market isn't the best option for your
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money however neither is keeping all
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your money in your bank account as we're
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facing extremely high levels of
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inflation the government says this is at
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8.5
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but in all honesty i think it's much
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higher on top of this putin has decided
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to invade ukraine leading to a
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devastating war and a squeeze on global
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supply chains this has a side effect of
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making certain commodities like oil more
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expensive meaning filling up your car is
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hitting your wallet like never before
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this is causing you to have less money
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that is quickly becoming even less
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valuable by the second this pressure on
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finances has brought to the surface a
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common fear of a looming recession and
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it's fast becoming a reality for the
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first three months of this year
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economists assumed we would grow by 1.1
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but what actually happened was far worse
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we saw a 1.4 decline which means we're
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halfway towards a recession this means
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if you put money into stocks bitcoin and
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even your bank account you're probably
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going to lose money at the moment
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honestly i can see why you would think
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that this mission to find the best
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investment is pointless as you seem to
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be just throwing your money away this
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thinking has led to a general loss of
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interest in the space but could this be
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the perfect opportunity for you to make
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your millions let's take a closer look
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the stock market is now down 21
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worst day on wall street since the crash
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of 1987 the most serious recession in
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decades we're now down 43
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[Music]
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but first i'd like to thank today's
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sponsor public.com public is an
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investing platform that i've been
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working with for almost two years now
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that helps people be better investors on
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etfs to build a modern diverse portfolio
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explore themes of stocks like sports
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their questions live in the app and the
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best part is they have zero dollar fees
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on standard stock trades and you can get
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a free stock slice worth between three
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and a thousand dollars once you've
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funded your account with my link in the
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description thanks public for supporting
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the channel now let's get back to the
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video as a business owner i'm one of the
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first people to feel the effects of a
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coming recession i remember seeing the
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signs in 2008 people were starved of
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access to finance businesses failed and
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job losses soared my business is source
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raw materials from abroad deal with
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foreign factories and distributing shops
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as well as the internet this gives me a
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unique perspective on supply chains and
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customer demand which could be early
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indicators of a coming financial
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collapse sure you could look at
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indicators like the consumer price index
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but these are heavily influenced by
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governments and it's very easy for them
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to manipulate the figures and lie to us
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however one thing they don't have
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control over is my businesses so let's
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look at how i was affected in 2008 and
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compare them to the problems i'm facing
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now by doing this we should be able to
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get a better idea of the true financial
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situation we're facing so let's follow
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the journey of this model plane that was
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designed by me and is sold all over the
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country
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so all the products we buy start in the
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form of raw materials and it's exactly
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the same for my model aircraft as we use
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plastic wood and also electronic
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components so knowing how raw materials
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of price is important as it has a direct
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impact on our wallets when the 2008
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financial crisis hit the manufacturing
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sector suffered severe consequences
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industries such as machinery metals and
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transportation equipment had huge drops
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in customer orders by up to 42 within a
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single year as supply and demand have an
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inverse relationship this meant that the
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cost of my raw materials actually
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decreased in 2008 as they were eager to
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sell to anyone that had the money to buy
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however in 2022 the raw materials market
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is under considerable strain it's
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costing me more than ever to get hold of
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the raw materials that are required to
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produce my products this is because
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market demand is still high and when
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this is coupled with reduced supply this
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continues to keep material prices at
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rates never previously seen globally one
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of the raw materials i require to make
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this model aircraft is balsa wood the
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issue is it's in extremely high demand
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and one of the contributing factors is
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that it's being used in wind turbines
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it's even got to the stage when i've had
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to put my customers on a three-month
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waiting list this is just one example of
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how increased raw material cost is
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impacting the everyday person
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so once the product has been produced it
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actually has to get to me and this is
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where supply chains come into play now
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that our everyday products come from all
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over the world supply chains affect us
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more than ever on the run-up to 2008
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things were going great and the economy
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was booming during times like this
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factories really ramped up their
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manufacturing capacity by investing in
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more equipment facilities and workers in
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order to meet the demand this leads to
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supply chains accelerating costly
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transport being accepted and large
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batches being produced because the goods
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will be sold at some stage it was a huge
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shock to the system when the crisis hit
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in 2008 and supply chains had to totally
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re-evaluate their business models due to
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the lack of demand nobody seemed to have
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any money which led to shrinking
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customer orders increasing competition
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and a decrease in margin for the
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manufacturing industry however 2022 is
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completely different this is because of
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the pandemic we saw a complete slowdown
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in our actual supply chains and they're
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still not back to full capacity this
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means that demand far outweighs supply
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therefore shipping this product and many
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others from china is getting more
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expensive ships that used to take four
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weeks and now taking six a big reason
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for this decrease in speed is the rise
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in oil prices as container ships can
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save up to 25 of their fuel cost just by
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going slower the last container i got
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into my warehouse cost me 17 000 to ship
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which is absolutely insane as
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pre-pandemic it cost me four thousand
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five hundred dollars that was the best
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price i ever got though
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once this product reaches me it has to
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be handled by my warehouse team this
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obviously has a lot of costs involved
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with it during times of recession most
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businesses are looking to cut costs and
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this is when people lose their jobs in
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2008 i was mostly concerned with my rent
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prices this is when i made the decision
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to buy all the buildings my businesses
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now operate from so i no longer have to
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worry about landlords increasing my rent
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and squeezing my profit margins in 2022
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i am even more focused on cutting costs
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recently i changed all my light into led
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so i can save on increasing electricity
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costs i've also implemented automatic
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lighting so the lights aren't left on
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unnecessarily as more people lose their
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jobs due to cuts this causes the economy
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to grind to a halt as people have less
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money to spend that brings us on to the
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final trip for this product and that's
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when someone buys it and takes it home
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this can happen in store or via the
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internet when less people are buying
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products it decreases the gdp which
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pushes us into a recession if growth is
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negative for two quarters in a row in
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2008 well 2010 is when it really
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impacted me demand was extremely reduced
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due to most people being low on cash
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whereas now it seems like people have
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more money but supply chain issues and
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worries about the recession are causing
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the main problems i have huge demand for
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products i can't get but lower demand
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for products i have so as we can clearly
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see history is not repeating itself this
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recession seems like something
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completely different than before but the
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real question is is there an opportunity
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for you to profit well i've got some
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good news and some bad news about
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whether or not this is the financial
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opportunity you've been waiting for the
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good news is history has shown that the
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u.s stock market recovers after a
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decline and investors that have stayed
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in the market for the long term have
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benefited the most from the recoveries
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it's a bit like in february and march
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2020 when the pandemic first got real
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imagine selling here right at the bottom
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through fear of what was to come only to
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have the price rebound and soar to new
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heights in the space of only a few
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months i'm like a squirrel during market
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declines grabbing as many acorns as i
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can and hoarding them through the winter
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as buying low is where the real money is
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made and let's be honest the recession
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doesn't always mean a decline in the
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stock market you can't time the market
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but index fund investing and picking the
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right defensive companies has always
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been a great strategy that i've used in
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the past now the bad news is
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historically the stock market takes
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anywhere from six months to two years to
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recover from a recession which really
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isn't good for psychology when investing
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consistently this could also impact you
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more than most if you're on the verge of
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retirement and can't weather two years
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of no returns and let's not forget not
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every company makes a swift recovery and
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some never bounce back at all overall i
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think job security is really important
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to ensure a constant reliable income
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extending your emergency fund from three
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to six months or maybe even more should
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stop you from having to sell your
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investments at a loss should you hit
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financial difficulties i've personally
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tweaked my investment strategy ever so
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slightly to include more recession-proof
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businesses in industries as well as
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consistently investing into index funds
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investments like crypto just don't have
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enough historical data surrounding them
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to make an educated guess on how they'll
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hold up during a recession but bitcoin
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and other crypto coins have been closely
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following stocks lately and could follow
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a similar course when buying crypto make
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sure to use the ftx app as they give you
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free krypton every trade over ten
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dollars which is really helpful at the
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moment that's for sure so i'm going to
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leave the next video right up there but
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don't click on it just yet make sure to
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subscribe if you want to grow your
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wealth okay i'll see you over there
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