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Trader’s calendar on 29 November – 1 December: Christine Lagarde’s speech boosts EUR. - YouTube
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The US dollar and other safe-haven assets
are gaining in value amid the risk of a worsening
[5]
epidemiological situation.
[8]
The US dollar is also consolidating near its
16-months high amid the latest FOMC meeting
[16]
results.
[17]
According to the report, the number of politicians
who support the key interest rate hike is
[24]
actively rising.
[25]
In our video review, we will find out what
events may shape market sentiment at the beginning
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of the next week.
[32]
The new trading week will begin with the publication
of the CPI data in Germany, the largest eurozone
[42]
economy.
[43]
According to the forecast, the consumer price
index will increase by 4.8% compared to a
[50]
rise of 4.5% in the previous period.
[53]
Such predictions cause concerns only among
investors.
[59]
Monetary authorities are still assuring markets
that surging inflation is a short-lived phenomenon
[65]
and there is no use to change the stance immediately.
[69]
However, on Thursday, Christine Lagarde dropped
a hint that the ECB was ready to alter its
[77]
attitude towards higher interest rates.
[80]
Judging by traders’ reaction, the news about
inflation growth may boost the euro/dollar
[86]
pair.
[87]
Next day, the eurozone will disclose its preliminary
inflation estimates.
[92]
Economists foresee a faster annual rise in
consumer prices that may lead to an increase
[98]
in the euro/dollar pair.
[100]
On Tuesday, traders may also focus on the
Chinese manufacturing PMI.
[105]
This day, the National Bureau of Statistics
of China will report on business activity
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in the largest and big enterprises.
[115]
In the previous period, manufacturing PMI
showed a decline.
[119]
In November, the indicator is also expected
to be below a 50-point threshold that separates
[127]
expansion from contraction.
[130]
The drop is likely to put pressure on the
Australian dollar, the currency of China’s
[135]
main supplier of raw materials.
[138]
On Wednesday, experts at Markit Economics
will disclose their business activity report
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for medium and small companies.
[147]
In this case, the situation is a bit more
positive.
[151]
The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain
above 50 points.
[156]
However, the indicator is likely to approach
the threshold, pointing to a fading upward
[163]
impulse.
[165]
Against this background, traders could become
more cautious due to concerns about further
[172]
economic recovery.
[173]
Thus, demand for safe-haven assets may mount.
[177]
News from the US, the largest global economy,
also reflects the pace of the global economic
[183]
growth.
[184]
Later on Wednesday, traders will learn about
the business activity in the US manufacturing
[190]
sector.
[191]
According to the forecast, the ISM manufacturing
PMI will continue climbing to the levels recorded
[198]
in September.
[199]
Such a high growth pace may boost the US assets
and signal the readiness for a higher interest
[207]
rate to the Fed.
[208]
Notably, the US Fed relies on employment reports
when estimating the country’s economic condition.
[216]
On Friday, the US Labor Department is going
to unveil its official report.
[221]
On Wednesday, the ADP non-farm employment
change data will be slated for release.
[228]
In November, the indicator may increase by
480 thousand that is a bit less than in the
[236]
previous period.
[237]
Speculations about monetary policy tightening
and greenback’s appreciation are likely
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to surge amid the expected figures.
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