馃攳
The RUSSELL 2000 is the key INDEX to Watch! It is directly tied to the GROWTH of the US ECONOMY! | - YouTube
Channel: unknown
[10]
hey traders this is blake morrow with trader聽
summit and with me today i have mish from market聽聽
[15]
gage how are you mitch how how how have you been聽
been great thanks blake for having me on today聽聽
[21]
it's so nice to have you here so you know the聽
reason i really wanted to bring you on is a couple聽聽
[27]
couple fold really you know the market's been聽
grinding higher and we have seemed to find a聽聽
[33]
lot of support here in the s p around the 4450聽
level how are you approaching the market right now聽聽
[40]
especially with the fed coming up this next week聽
well it's interesting because there's a couple of聽聽
[47]
places to be watching in the market there's this聽
huge dichotomy between the s p 500 as the index聽聽
[54]
and a lot of the stocks that are actually traded聽
within the basket those some of those have really聽聽
[59]
been going down while the index has been going up聽
so the fact that we're seeing a little bit maybe聽聽
[64]
of that gap narrowing where maybe we'll start聽
to see some of the value stocks come into play聽聽
[70]
would be a lot healthier for the market while聽
the index comes down but let's put that on the聽聽
[74]
side what i really like to focus on all the time聽
even though nasdaq and s p have well outperformed聽聽
[80]
i still really watch the small caps russell 2000聽
in particular as the key index for me and that is聽聽
[88]
because it is really tied to the growth of the聽
u.s economy because those 2 000 stocks that are聽聽
[94]
in the basket of iwm are not only heavy in聽
the financials which has been a weak sector聽聽
[100]
but also heavy in manufacturing and industrial and聽
all with a presence here in the u.s as opposed to聽聽
[106]
your apples and your microsofts and your amazon聽
that are more tech oriented the other thing i聽聽
[111]
really like to watch is the transportation sector聽
and i like to look at that through the etf iyt聽聽
[118]
because that sort of if we look at聽
at the iwm or the russell's as your聽聽
[124]
supply side then i yt transportation is聽
really going to be your demand side right聽聽
[130]
yeah and so if you want to see a clue into not聽
only how things are doing in terms of output聽聽
[136]
but if you really want to see how much people聽
are buying or traveling you're going to look聽聽
[140]
there so that's your trains planes automobiles聽
i like to call it and that started going down聽聽
[146]
well before well actually hasn't even really聽
gone up much but it was definitely going down聽聽
[151]
while the cues were going sideways and while聽
the spy was sort of sort of hanging out near the聽聽
[156]
highs until these last several days so that聽
already told me to spell some caution here聽聽
[162]
that tech will eventually gravity will always聽
take over and what you're hearing people say is聽聽
[168]
the spy hasn't even had a real good correction in聽
so long so we kind of liquidated in terms of the聽聽
[177]
discretionary trading account we liquidated聽
a lot of the stuff that just wasn't working聽聽
[182]
it wasn't really going anywhere it wasn't like聽
we were underwater but we weren't really making聽聽
[186]
money so just to be defensive we unloaded聽
probably about seven positions last week聽聽
[191]
okay held on to natural gas which we can talk聽
about commodities in a little bit netflix which聽聽
[198]
we got out of earlier this week and a couple聽
of other smaller uh equities that are still in聽聽
[203]
there from ages ago but now today is a very聽
pivotal day so let's get back to the fed聽聽
[210]
so right now the fed is watching the exact same聽
thing we're watching they're pretty smart even聽聽
[215]
though everybody likes to criticize them and聽
says oh inflation inflation inflation and yes聽聽
[220]
they're letting it run hot cpi actually showed聽
it cooled you know i'm skeptical about that but聽聽
[225]
in terms of pure numbers they're going to stay聽
accommodative and we're seeing that we're seeing聽聽
[229]
that in the junk bonds we're seeing that in the in聽
the treasury bonds which are showing how they're聽聽
[234]
a little bit concerned here about the overall聽
economy growing and so what that tells me is that聽聽
[241]
the big crash that people are anticipating is聽
not going to happen and we're more range bound聽聽
[248]
well you know and that's interesting you say being聽
range bound because you you talk about like the聽聽
[252]
russell 2000 you look at all of 2021 i mean the聽
market really hasn't gone anywhere and we happen聽聽
[258]
to be pretty much mid-range but then you mentioned聽
the the the transports and you're right they have聽聽
[264]
been underperforming actually i think we were at聽
least at the 2021 lows or really close to the 2021聽聽
[271]
lows and it looks like we're holding so that that聽
range bound theory um is going to is you know it聽聽
[277]
seems like that's that's what's in play right聽
now so what would what would change your mind聽聽
[283]
if if you know let's let's fast forward to the聽
fed and here we are on the 22nd and uh the fed聽聽
[290]
says what that might say you know what i need to聽
be all in i need to be long everything or is there聽聽
[297]
something that might trigger you to say you know聽
what i need to stand aside and let the market pull聽聽
[303]
back a little bit what are your thoughts there聽
that's a great question blake because that is聽聽
[307]
exactly my strategy here is to watch over the聽
next few days i'm pretty convinced that the fed聽聽
[313]
is going to say exactly what they always say the聽
labor market is weak and the labor market is going聽聽
[319]
to remain weak and the reason why is because even聽
though the unemployment benefits have gone away聽聽
[325]
there are millions and millions of people taking聽
early retirement there's still a whole lot of聽聽
[329]
people that aren't going back to work and you聽
also have these incentive bonuses that people聽聽
[335]
are signing up for and then quitting the next day聽
so people have not only learned to game this whole聽聽
[341]
system but on top of that people are worried聽
about the variant a lot of companies have聽聽
[345]
said you can stay at home people have found other聽
businesses and people are investing so all of that聽聽
[351]
i don't know if the if you're going to sit聽
there powell's going to say all of that but聽聽
[354]
he's going to say labor market is weak and he聽
needs to see it stronger he's made that clear聽聽
[358]
that and what we just talked about these inside聽
sectors are weak showing growth maybe not so much聽聽
[365]
so they're going to stay where they're at taper聽
people are confused paper means they're going to聽聽
[370]
maybe buy less bonds but they just announced ahead聽
of the debt ceiling that they're actually going to聽聽
[374]
buy more bonds so let's put the fed out of the聽
equation for a second and look at pure chart聽聽
[380]
so here's what i'm watching just like you just聽
said in iyt transports in particular we just聽聽
[387]
tested actually the july 2021 lows and in聽
the russells we're still well above the聽聽
[394]
the 2021 lows because they were like聽
down at around 204 it's trading like 221聽聽
[400]
really struggling here to hang on yeah i think you聽
need to have some patience if those two areas in聽聽
[405]
particular hold these support levels and start to聽
creep up even if it's ahead of the fed meeting if聽聽
[413]
you're going to trade on the basis of every fed聽
meeting you'd be crippled you would have never聽聽
[417]
made any money so if you if you want to look at聽
certain things based on risk reward particularly聽聽
[423]
in the small caps or in the transports聽
that are well undervalued with good risk聽聽
[428]
if they hold yeah that's kind of our strategy聽
i'm still very much focused on commodities聽聽
[434]
and i still think that gold is ridiculously聽
undervalued uh the grains had all come off聽聽
[440]
giving a buy opportunity here particularly聽
wheat today's start to fly again and so聽聽
[446]
put the commodities aside what would make me go聽
super defensive would be is if those areas we聽聽
[454]
just talked about fail if transports can hold聽
around 242 which is a 50 week moving average聽聽
[461]
if iwm breaks down under let's say i would even聽
give it some room 214 204 um and then the queues聽聽
[468]
start to lose it and the spy starts to lose the聽
50-day moving average that would happen as well聽聽
[473]
i'd also watch volatility because when we've had聽
these moves down we haven't seen volatility move聽聽
[477]
very much yeah so if the volatility starts to聽
increase and these sectors really continue to聽聽
[484]
weaken even if the fed becomes more accommodative聽
or says they're going to remain as accommodative聽聽
[490]
then i think we've got some trouble ahead but聽
right now i'm not anticipating that very much聽聽
[495]
well very good you know michelle i i love how聽
you put together all the different sectors聽聽
[500]
and i love how you like to factor in some聽
commodities there too and you know i've had聽聽
[505]
a lot of one one last thing i want to i want to聽
mention just before i let you go you know a lot聽聽
[510]
of people pretty much universally across the board聽
that i talked to really love gold and i understand聽聽
[516]
the reasons why but we haven't seen gold really聽
do much and it hasn't done much in the face of聽聽
[522]
higher inflationary pressures that we've seen聽
you know this year so is there any place that聽聽
[527]
you're looking in gold that you might say i don't聽
know if i really want to own it anymore because i聽聽
[532]
like you i i get the story and i like the story聽
and it should be going hard but it's it's having聽聽
[538]
a difficult time where is it where you go yeah聽
i don't know if i really want to own it anymore聽聽
[544]
do you know right off top of your head i know it's聽
yeah no no i have it off the top of my head i'm聽聽
[548]
just trying to think if i should talk in terms聽
of futures prices like price per ounce or talk聽聽
[553]
in terms of gld or both oh so let's say yeah so聽
let's look at futures prices so we're hovering聽聽
[560]
around 1800 right we've gone聽
down i i felt the buy zone was聽聽
[565]
going to be somewhere around 1790 and so聽
far we're holding around that 1790 mark聽聽
[570]
if it breaks down under 1790 i wouldn't聽
necessarily be the dip buyer right away聽聽
[574]
because we could see another flush down 1750聽
though would really be like my rock bottom i聽聽
[580]
i can't even imagine blake that it's going to聽
go down much lower than that i really can't on聽聽
[585]
the flip side if we look at gld then we're looking聽
at around 160 450 is really kind of i think would聽聽
[590]
correspond with around that 1750 maybe a little聽
higher i don't know if the exact ratio there聽聽
[596]
on the other side we have a six month calendar聽
range which we like to look at it resets every聽聽
[602]
january and every july so we just had a reset and聽
that recent spike we had in gld at 171 and change聽聽
[609]
was right to the top of the six-month calendar聽
range high and that equated to about 1834 an ounce聽聽
[616]
we get through there even though selling strength聽
has been the ticket in gold i think that gold will聽聽
[624]
really start to rally and yes inflation is a key聽
and there's been other indicators that people have聽聽
[629]
looked at to hedge like bitcoin for example聽
yeah but it also has a geopolitical component聽聽
[635]
and so if there's any unrest that happens and聽
let's face it things seem to be relatively orderly聽聽
[641]
all things considered but there's buzzes out there聽
and i've heard them this afghanistan situation聽聽
[647]
i've heard buzzes about al qaeda trying to get聽
their act together anything that could happen聽聽
[651]
geopolitically could take gold rocketing and even聽
if that doesn't happen and of course we all hope聽聽
[657]
that nothing happens it still is so undervalued聽
compared to the dow if you look at 1980聽聽
[667]
we are at about a 35 to one in terms of price聽
ratio between the dow and the gold where they聽聽
[672]
were in 1980 to 2021 so that tells me that it's聽
bubbling it's bubbling and i still it's gold it's聽聽
[680]
still valuable it's still a store of value it's聽
not like it's worthless so that's kind of where聽聽
[686]
i have my eye at this point well you know michelle聽
that was uh i i love i love it because you know i聽聽
[692]
like you it's like hannah i know above 1835 i'm聽
probably gonna let loose it's a big resistance for聽聽
[699]
the for the gold market so that's great you know聽
mish if if if i want to learn more about what you聽聽
[705]
do how do i find you specifically well twitter聽
is probably the best place and my handle is聽聽
[712]
at market minute i also marketgage.com is our聽
website but i'm very very uh responsive on twitter聽聽
[721]
so if you have a specific question you can ask me聽
there and we can always take it from that point聽聽
[725]
but marketgage would be fun to look at just聽
to see what we do our suite of products聽聽
[729]
how we operate our free content as well as our聽
paid content awesome and you know traders for聽聽
[734]
those of you that are listening in from the聽
traders summit website just click the link聽聽
[738]
below it'll take you right to mitch's website and聽
mission her team post pretty much daily here on聽聽
[745]
the trader summit site so you can always get fresh聽
ideas right from them so michelle schneider thank聽聽
[751]
you so much for joining us today and it's always聽
great seeing you thank you so much blake pleasure
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage