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2020 HYPER-BUBBLE - Will it Meltdown, or Meltup? Mike Maloney - YouTube
Channel: GoldSilver (w/ Mike Maloney)
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the stock markets are absitively
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posolutely in a bubble a hyper bubble
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the only question is will they meltdown
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or will they melt up this is Warren
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Buffett's favorite stock market and
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indicator hits a record high signaling a
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crash could be coming and what this is
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you know the buffett indicator is
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something that i have been researching
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and following for more than a decade I
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don't know of any writer or commentator
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that has probably put as much research
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into it as I have anyway it divides the
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total value of the publicly traded
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stocks it takes the Wilshire 5000 total
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full market cap index and it divides
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that by the size of the economy the GDP
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the gross domestic product the Wilshire
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5000 no longer has 5000 stocks in it
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because there aren't 5000 publicly
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traded stocks left anymore the it's it's
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like 3,800 or something like that stocks
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but it's the value of the stock market
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divided by the value of the economy and
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what you get is this and this so there
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you go Wilshire 5000 total for my full
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market cap Index / GDP and what you see
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here is that it's currently alma it's
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approaching 1.8 times the size of the
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economy so the value of the stock market
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is 80 percent greater than the value
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it's about 75 percent here greater than
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the size of the economy and it really
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has no business being larger than the
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economy ever this is just an absolute
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hyper bubble now this is the data that
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was in the article I have a couple of
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researchers and we have been working on
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this for a long long long time and
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collecting data from all over the place
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and I've got data here and it's from the
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same sources basically I'm surprised
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that they only published this data but
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if you know what you're doing with the
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data you can add another quarter century
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to the data and so here is mine this is
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a few weeks
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so it doesn't have that very last bit of
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data on it I haven't updated it yet I
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will this is for my book the great gold
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and silver rush of the 21st century but
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what you see here is it's just at
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absolute ridiculous highs it has no
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business being larger than the economy
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and I've shaded areas where it's at fair
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value and sort of it equilibrium and
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where it's undervalued and overvalued in
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a bubble and the trick is to buy stocks
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when when this is undervalued and seldom
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when it's in the overvalued territory
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but for this entire century it has been
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overvalued now there are people that
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will argue that this upward trend over
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time is just the markets becoming more
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efficient to which I get to say Boulogne
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I have data and now that we've found
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that nobody else has that goes back
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another half century beyond this so I
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can show that for the entire 20th
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century the stock markets were
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undervalued overvalued undervalued over
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vied undervalued and then they went up
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into this hyper bubble and bounced down
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and you can see that in 2009 here they
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they dipped into fair value just for a
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little while but they never really let
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the economy clear itself out it didn't
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it never visited undervalued where it
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really needs to be before a brand new
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real bull market can it can happen what
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has happened is Alan Greenspan Ben
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Bernanke and Janet Yellen and Jerome
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Powell just keep on blowing this thing
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back up into bubbles and every time the
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stock market has a problem they push it
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back up into a bubble and this cannot
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last the reason for these crashes is is
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the the markets the economy the the
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markets are trying to balance the stock
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market with the economy the free market
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and so it punishes this manipulation and
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you get this reversion and that's when
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everybody screams Oh free
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market isn't working and they blow stuff
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into a bubble this was the there was a
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real-estate bubble here this is the
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stock market but the stock market went
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and back up into a hyper bubble also and
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you know it crashed again and they
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should have just let it continue to
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crash and reach that undervalued area
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and we could have had a genuine brand
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new bull market start in the economy
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rebuilding but they've kept the economy
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in this sick diseased state by
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constantly pushing it into these bubbles
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so that was this article right here but
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I want to point out a couple other our
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articles hyperinflation warning how
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prices could skyrocket in a post virus
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world and this is from the chief market
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strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management
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that says though in a year's time we
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could experience hyperinflation instead
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now you know that depends on the central
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bank's reaction you know the world's
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central banks especially the Federal
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Reserve to whatever market meltdown or
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melt up if if they overreact it will be
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a market melt up you're going to see
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this coming on the weekend I've got
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something special for you and you're
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going to see like you know in the Weimar
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hyperinflation for instance the stock
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markets went up they didn't they didn't
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crash down they crashed up they melted
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up and the reason for that was the
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inflation that was going on in the
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economy you were still better off if you
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were in precious metals or something
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like that but the markets can melt up so
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this is possible it's just that you know
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other people are starting to come to the
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same conclusion that I came to a decade
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ago more than a decade ago in my book
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with this conclusion in two thousand
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five six seven is when I really
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developed my ideas on this from studying
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it so deeply in studying monetary
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history and I believe that it's going to
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take once people get scared it's going
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to take them a little longer than that
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unless the world's central banks
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overreact so much that this just
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reverses in a year
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and that's one of the things you're
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gonna see on on Sunday night we're
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coming out with something another thing
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this is deflationary SUVs get parked at
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sea
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revealing scope of US auto market glut
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cars coming from Japan that were on
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ships they just ordered a ship to just
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drop anchor off of Los Angeles and wait
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because there is no place to put all the
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excess cars so Nissan has an entire boat
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full of cars just sitting out there on
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the ocean and this is the same thing
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that just happened with oil it's the
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reason that oil went negative was there
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is no place to put it and so that was on
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the main page today the news on the
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radar
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Ryan Dietrich says economy record drop
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in services record drop in consumer
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spending record drop in industrial
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production record spike in jobless
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claims record drop in regional
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manufacturing record drop in consumer
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confidence record asset purchases Reed
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currency typing fiat currency typing
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from the Fed best stocks best month
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since 1987 this is incredible and I love
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this picture here's the guy on Main
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Street the economy and here's the guys
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partying on Wall Street well I actually
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think the cartoon started belongs like
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this this is just hilarious so are the
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markets going to melt down or melt up
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we're just going to have to wait and see
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I want to welcome the fourteen hundred
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and fifty-seven new subscribers and make
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sure you go back and click that little
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notification bell and YouTube will
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notify you when we've put up a video we
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always appreciate a thumbs up and if you
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go to goldsilver.com slash free book all
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of you new viewers you can download a
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copy of my book and it's not just a
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guide to investing in gold and silver
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there's a lot more to learn there it's a
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very entertaining monetary history
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current state of the global economy some
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simple economics some potential outcomes
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and then a guide to investing in gold
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and silver got any questions ask them in
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the comments and other viewers that have
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read
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the book will give their comments on it
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the chart of the day this is from macro
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charts and stocks gapped down the most
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ever in March stocks gapped
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up the most ever in April in 30 years of
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the sp500 this extreme volatility was
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mostly in transitions between bull and
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bear markets mean reversion is brutal
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and markets are merciless be ready for
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everything in May so what they're
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pointing out here is you know you've got
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these periods of low volatility and then
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in bull markets and during pull backs
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especially you have these corresponding
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Peaks that are that are above the
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average and you've got these gap downs
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so peaks and valleys above and below the
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average happen when there's a when
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there's a change in the wind and then
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you see this low volatility here where
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oh everything's fine the the tech bubble
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popped but and there's no real estate
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bubble happening oh no that couldn't be
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happening and then the real estate
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bubble and the stock market because this
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was in a bubble again you looked at p/e
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ratios and the you know my book was
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written originally in this area is where
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I was writing it and it came out right
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here and then the hear and the stock
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markets crashed right after that making
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it the best-selling book on precious
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metals because it was just the timing
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part of that was you know just luck but
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we've had a couple of other spikes and
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the bull market began and now we've got
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these spikes up and this is the biggest
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one in history but look at that gap down
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spike that resulted from this crash this
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is huge
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unprecedented and it really does say get
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ready for something special report this
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is what's coming on the weekend there's
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a chain reaction and what we've been
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through so far is probably the first 10%
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of what's going to happen the crisis is
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about to expand it's not over with and
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whether the markets
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melt down or melt up all depends on what
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the Federal Reserve's reaction to it is
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but if it melts up then you got to get
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ready for a hyperinflation that follows
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and this video shows you how quickly
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things can change this is going to come
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out Sunday at 7 p.m. Eastern so get
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ready for that go to goldsilver.com
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slash join - our - newsletter or go to
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the main page at gold silver comm and
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scroll right down to the bottom of it
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and there's a field just enter your
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email address we're not gonna try and
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sell you a bunch of stuff but every time
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we come out out with a brand new video
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you're going to get notified about an
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hour ahead of time and then Jeff Clark
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has his wonderful he's got some great
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analysis of what's going on and he does
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a newsletter about twice a week and
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you're going to get that and it's good
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information that you should have so put
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your news let your your email address in
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there and you'll be kept up up-to-date
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on all that and we don't share your
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email address with anyone viewer
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feedback from yesterday's video the in
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deflation that I was talking about in
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the video is called skew flashin in
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India where food prices rise and other
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assets fall it happened in 1992 96 and
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2010 in India thank you so much for
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confirming what I was talking about but
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this is what we're going into now and
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it's really some very weird stuff that's
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very unpredictable
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I've been trying to wake up my friends
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here in Canada for the last eight years
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with your videos thank you very much
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it's like banging my head against the
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wall tell me about it
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when I discovered gold back in 2002 and
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I started buying the spot price was
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about 315 and I'm telling everybody you
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gotta buy gold you got to take a look at
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gold and they're going gold
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that's the worst investment you could
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make I've been it's been going down for
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20 years I'm going exactly it's been
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going down for 20 years he just didn't
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get it but recently I've been sharing
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your hidden secrets of money series with
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my friends in Venezuela bang instantly
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get it and understand everything what a
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huge difference they asked me
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all the time for more information and
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you know it's really interesting once
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people are feeling the pain they become
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open to the information that says well
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good times might not last forever so
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thank you very much for that comment the
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quote of the day government's view of
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the economy could be summed up in a few
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short phrases if it moves tax it if it
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keeps moving regulated if it stops
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moving subsidize it this is government
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you know I'm in a place where you have
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to fight if you have a business you have
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to file returns with the government on a
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monthly basis and you have to do with
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holding to anybody that you pay more
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than $500 to anybody and that includes
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like the phone company and the cable
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company you and you got to do a return
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every single month it's absolutely
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insane I want to thank you for watching
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we'll see you next time
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