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Tesla Q2 Earnings Estimate - YouTube

Channel: Tesla Economist

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welcome to the tesla economist please

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hit the thumbs up and remember to

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subscribe you can follow me on twitter

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and talk to me on patreon

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all right carrying on from our previous

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video just a quick recap we've estimated

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that there is potentially about five

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billion dollars gross profit from

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shanghai and fremont now we have a

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starting point we need to add in all the

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other variables and then find out how

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much of that five million dollars is

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left firstly we will add the last

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element to auto profits the regulatory

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credits now every element in this report

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could have a big effect and regulatory

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credits are no exception except in q1

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regulatory credits were an exception as

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an exceptionally high regulatory credit

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we have a credit of 679 million dollars

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last quarter this was tesla's highest

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ever regulatory credits and was

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unexpected in fact this was the only

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ever time the credits were above 500

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million dollars except for q1 in 2021

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when it reached 518 million

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ie last quarter had regulatory credits

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over 30 higher than the highest quarter

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previously now if there was ever a

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quarter that was in need of some

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regulatory credit tlc then this was the

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one i'd like to place 500 million

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dollars in there but it has really even

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hit 400 million dollars many times

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perhaps it's possible tesla can put down

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another 600 million dollars but judging

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by history i think we're possibly still

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being generous at 400 million dollars

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which is what i think i will place

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perhaps a little on the high side due to

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last quarter being so high and this

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quarter needing it so badly now on to

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what is likely the hardest part of this

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to calculate the texas and berlin money

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furnaces i'm not sure what others are

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estimating but i think an average of 200

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million dollars lost per factory is

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probably over budgeting i've been

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through the numbers and i would have a

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hard time to believe that it would be

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over 400 million dollars total loss for

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those new factories i think the number

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may actually be closer to 300 million

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dollars but i'm trying to work hard

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getting a good result without having to

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be overly bullish for the record i

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didn't just pull these numbers for the

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factories out of thin air we've done a

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full model in a past video as to what

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these factories might have cost during

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q2 and despite elon saying they were

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costing billions those numbers don't

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stack up unless he was talking about

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construction costs or lost opportunity

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costs i would guess that this is

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potentially where other estimates are

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likely to differ the most now we've

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added regulatory credits and the

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factories well i'm happy to report that

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we're now at a total auto gross profit

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of five billion dollars that is not

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nothing in fact it's only 550 million

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less than last quarter remember zac

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kirkhorn said that the increased margins

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might offset the two new factories of

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course this was before the china

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lockdowns and likely the 46 eddy

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struggles either way he seems to think

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that there is going to be a lot of extra

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profit from the price rises as for the

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other operations of tesla it would

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appear services and other did well last

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quarter and perhaps now with tesla's

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leases expiring then tesla are able to

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resell those used teslas and let's face

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the very real possibility that tesla

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possibly made a model 3 in 2019 received

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three years leasing income and now tesla

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are possibly able to resell this

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three-year-old tesla for more than it

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cost back in 2019 and with the

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additional leasing profits too that's

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pretty impressive energy has also been

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growing a bit lately too q1 saw some

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good numbers however still losses but

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perhaps tesla are making less losses now

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using more lfp sales and storage with

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all that said i'm going to estimate zero

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dollars profit hopefully it's that high

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and tesla haven't ramped up more losses

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by expanding energy these areas of

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business are not going to have any major

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impact for some time anyway sometime in

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the second half of the decade perhaps

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alright that brings total gross profit

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to obviously exactly the same and i'm

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sure you guessed what's coming up next

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we can't neglect our old friend bitcoin

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now i think it was elon who hinted that

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tesla were holding close to 42 000

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bitcoin i have tessa's last bitcoin

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impairment at 31 576 dollars and the new

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low

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six of 17

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one dollars yes bitcoin got that low

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resulting in an additional impairment

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for q2 of 586 million dollars ouch that

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is definitely going to be felt in the

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earnings one way or another i think we

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placed bitcoin impairment in opex under

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restructuring and other now there is

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another potential restructure this

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quarter which could be moving

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headquarters to texas that is tough to

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guess but i'm going to increase

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restructuring to

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650 million dollars including bitcoin in

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case there are some costs there like

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severance pay as tesla have also been

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making layoffs in q2 as for the rest of

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the opex well this is where it gets

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interesting too last quarter we had our

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highest ever expense in r d and i'm not

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sure if this is a one-off event or if

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it's possibly going to increase even

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further the most expensive part of

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tesla's r d is the fsd so perhaps there

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is more to spend on r d as we're

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approaching human level fsd actually

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that's a thought all other evs are

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struggling so much to make a profit

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partly because their opex is so high

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significantly higher than tesla's was at

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any equivalent stage but most of tesla's

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r d expenses were fsd so where are the

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likes of polstar's equivalent r d

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dollars going anyway i do think the

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chances are that the last quarter's r d

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was likely high and this quarters may

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not be but it still could be high so i'm

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going to place 750 million dollars in

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for r d this is still 115 million

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dollars less than last quarter now there

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is a chance this could be as much as 250

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million less as well there's also a

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chance it could be 100 more it's

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definitely on the high side but might be

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what tesla is spending now sgna is going

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to be another fun one this quarter tesla

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do have layoffs if tess had to pay

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severance pay due to their layoffs then

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that would have been included in our

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restructuring but there may be less

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wages and potentially the new hq has

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lower overheads in texas compared to

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silicon valley i'm going to keep it

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about where it's been over the last year

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at around 1 billion dollars no joke sgna

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was still that much around mid-2020 you

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see this is pretty much a fixed cost and

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once you've covered it with high enough

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margins and the rest of opex then it's

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all profit from there yet tesla are

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producing four times as many cars since

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then sg a up 10

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production up 400 percent do you see

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what i mean economies of scale all right

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this brings us to a total opex of 2.4

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billion dollars ouch that is pretty big

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let's hope there's still some decent

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profit left this leaves us with an

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operational profit of three billion

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dollars all right that's not so bad

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we're down 600 million dollars from the

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previous quarter and i'm gonna go with

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the same tax rate as last quarter

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although i have a feeling that this

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might be a little bit lower when we

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calculate all of that we come to a net

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income gap earnings of 2.7 billion

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dollars actually only 500 million

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dollars lower than q1 wow well 500

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million dollars is about the bitcoin

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impairment and perhaps the increased

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prices have compensated for the rest of

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the discrepancies this comes to a gap

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earnings eps of

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2.38 and a non-gaap earnings eps of 2.72

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okay i didn't expect it to be this high

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it feels a bit too high but i don't

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think i have any errors and i've got the

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numbers too far from the actual numbers

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in fact i have a theory as to why it is

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so high i even reported the theory in a

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