馃攳
Under 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy | Hidden Ways to Identify Value and Win Football Bets - YouTube
Channel: Caan Berry Pro Trader
[0]
on average the premier league sees just over聽
2.5 goals per football match although in the聽聽
[6]
1819 season that topped out at an all-time high聽
of 2.82 goals however there's really value in聽聽
[12]
backing or laying the 2.5 goals market alone聽
so in this week's upload i'm going to take聽聽
[17]
you through the strategy and process of trading聽
the 2.5 goals market on betfair's exchange the聽聽
[23]
three main areas that we're going to focus on聽
are where the value is in the 2.5 goals market聽聽
[29]
hidden ways to identify value and how you can聽
implement the trading strategy and process for聽聽
[35]
2.5 goals by the end you'll have a better idea聽
on how to approach 2.5 goals hopefully leaving聽聽
[40]
you cashing out on a regular basis now this is聽
going to be a very good video in comparison to聽聽
[44]
normal so make sure you hang around to the end聽
we're also going to do 100 pound cash giveaway聽聽
[49]
inside this video so stay tuned to see if you've聽
won so where is the value in 2.5 goals obviously聽聽
[55]
we're looking for situations where there's the聽
least possible risk with the maximum possible聽聽
[59]
reward the point where there's no financial聽
downside in the marketplace but an increased聽聽
[64]
chance of a successful trade be it because聽
something's happening on pitch or something that聽聽
[68]
happens in the marketplace now where is that the聽
answer of course is unique depending on specific聽聽
[74]
set of variables in that particular situation聽
as we'll get into in just a second but there's聽聽
[79]
one key theme that runs amongst all of this and聽
that is time because it's not necessarily a case聽聽
[86]
of where but when something will happen now if you聽
can work out when there's most likely to be a goal聽聽
[92]
you've found yourself an opportunity to enter the聽
marketplace at minimal risk because in the over聽聽
[97]
under 2.5 goals market there's only two potential聽
outcomes so historically speaking 30 of premier聽聽
[104]
league games see a goal in the first 15 minutes聽
and 75 of games see a goal in the first half this聽聽
[111]
is the kind of data that's extremely useful when聽
it comes to finding your window of opportunity聽聽
[116]
by the way previously we uploaded a video about聽
premier league prediction and live statistics聽聽
[122]
in play so if you're interested in that check聽
out the link below we'll put in the description聽聽
[126]
for that alternate video and where you can聽
find those statistics so on an individual聽聽
[130]
level per game you need to be looking out for聽
things like when a goal is likely to be scored聽聽
[135]
if the teams in play are currently聽
performing in line with their recent form聽聽
[139]
xg can be extremely helpful in particular when聽
it comes to this one and if they have an above聽聽
[144]
average scoring rate this study that we'll share聽
on screen done by smarkits shows there's a direct聽聽
[149]
correlation between team strengths and first goals聽
these statistics only paint a basic picture though聽聽
[154]
so next i want to take a look at the hidden bright聽
spots that will show you where you can find value聽聽
[159]
in the 2.5 goals betting market now if you're聽
finding this video useful or interesting and聽聽
[164]
wouldn't mind please take two seconds just to tap聽
the like button down below there really appreciate聽聽
[168]
that also we've got some interesting football聽
strategy videos coming up in the coming weeks聽聽
[173]
so don't forget to subscribe to the channel聽
and tap the notification bell to be notified聽聽
[177]
as soon as they're uploaded but now let's get on聽
with the hidden places where you can find value聽聽
[181]
in a 2.5 goals market where they are and how you聽
can find them now the problem with finding value聽聽
[186]
is that instinctively people look in the wrong聽
direction altogether they're looking at the wrong聽聽
[192]
things they start looking for predicting the聽
overall match result or if there's likely to聽聽
[196]
be more than 2.5 goals in that particular game聽
when they should be focusing on things like the聽聽
[202]
average goal time of the chosen teams in the聽
particular match if there's added incentive to聽聽
[208]
score early or late in this particular match and聽
also if the home team is going to have an easy聽聽
[214]
time of controlling this particular match now you聽
may have seen last week's both teams score video聽聽
[218]
where we talked about stuff like that but you see聽
the secret is spotting where the value is at that聽聽
[223]
particular point in time once you do that you can聽
exploit that value over the short term and lock in聽聽
[228]
a profit by cashing out now i'd advise looking聽
at situations like this and asking yourself聽聽
[233]
is there likely to be a goal soon identifying聽
that stalling point in play can be an extremely聽聽
[239]
valuable thing this is where our football trading聽
strategy around 2.5 goals comes into play because聽聽
[244]
we need to identify a position within the match聽
and the marketplace for the 2.5 goals market聽聽
[251]
where there is a natural stalling point there's an聽
imbalance you know between support and resistance聽聽
[256]
what's actually happening on the pitch and in聽
the marketplace giving us more potential upside聽聽
[261]
than down so to identify that there's two things聽
that we can take a look at first of all we can see聽聽
[267]
the in-game action sometimes it's very obvious聽
when the flow of play has completely changed聽聽
[272]
and secondly we can look at the marketplace聽
because the natural time decay within the market聽聽
[277]
will stall and slow down as the traders and聽
bettors that are in that 2.5 goals market start聽聽
[284]
to react and change their betting behavior now i'm聽
going to share with you a few arbitrary pointers聽聽
[289]
which will help you anticipate and recognize one聽
of these situations ahead of time and clearly see聽聽
[295]
it for what it is as it actually happens because聽
that point is the key point in time where you want聽聽
[300]
to strike in the unders and over 2.5 market you聽
want to open your position so the first one is聽聽
[306]
average goal time so if we're betting in play聽
opening a position trading the match as it's聽聽
[311]
happening then we want to know what the average聽
goal time is for that particular team we don't聽聽
[316]
want it to be broad we want to be very specific聽
so i'll share with you a link in description down聽聽
[321]
below but you can find teams individual specific聽
goal times which will then allow you to understand聽聽
[327]
when you see this change of play on pitch and you聽
see the market sentiment change where you know聽聽
[333]
the time decay no longer wants to continue it's聽
very typical of the situation there's an increased聽聽
[338]
chance of a goal and therefore you can find聽
yourself that in balanced situation that we're聽聽
[342]
looking for the second one is their current form聽
so are they playing in line with their current聽聽
[348]
form obviously we've got xg ratings if they've聽
recently been playing to a certain xg and they're聽聽
[354]
performing in line with that right now coupled up聽
with the average goal time then you can be more聽聽
[358]
and more confident and clear about what you're聽
actually doing in terms of opening the position聽聽
[363]
or leaving a position open for a little bit longer聽
or even close that out if that's not transpiring聽聽
[368]
on the pitch so they're really important pointers聽
and then finally the exchange market activity is聽聽
[374]
often very reflective of the likely chance so it's聽
not unusual to see situations we'll share one on聽聽
[380]
screen now where the price completely stalls for a聽
substantial amount of time offering you know very聽聽
[387]
little downside if you're to go against the price聽
action just to reiterate here we're not looking聽聽
[392]
to make a monster profit on a one-off short-term聽
situation we're looking to find situations where聽聽
[397]
there's an imbalance where statistically over the聽
longer period of time we're going to emerge on top聽聽
[402]
so we're limiting our risk the whole time that is聽
the main objective now if this is making sense to聽聽
[407]
you logically and helping out take a second just聽
to tap the like button down below i also want聽聽
[411]
to announce this week's competition winner paul聽
harrison he's just 100 pound cash for commenting聽聽
[416]
on one of our previous videos and subscribing to聽
this channel so if you want to be on the chance聽聽
[420]
of winning in the future hit the subscribe button聽
down the bottom below now and also leave a comment聽聽
[424]
on this video about what you thought provide us聽
a little bit feedback so we can tailor future聽聽
[428]
content now the last thing i want to move on to聽
is implementing your strategy for trading at 2.5聽聽
[433]
goals market seeing what we're actually gonna do聽
so 2.5 goals is an extremely popular marketplace聽聽
[439]
there's a lot of liquidity a lot of volume passes聽
through it and it can be highly attractive because聽聽
[443]
you can get large stakes matched however with聽
there only been two possible outcomes to the聽聽
[447]
overs and unders market it's important to have a聽
structured systematic way that you approach every聽聽
[452]
single market over and over again managing your聽
position effectively so with that in mind here聽聽
[457]
are a few pointers first of all you want to do聽
some pre-game research touching on those previous聽聽
[462]
points i've already mentioned average goal times聽
current xg if teams currently performing in line聽聽
[467]
with its potential because when it comes to聽
opening a position in play things are going to聽聽
[472]
happen quite quickly emotions can become engaged聽
quite easily but you want to manage your position聽聽
[476]
as effectively as possible and the best way to do聽
that and understand where you should be opening聽聽
[480]
your position is by knowing what you expect to see聽
now part of that planning can also be the second聽聽
[485]
point i want to make which is breaking up stakes聽
because as i've already previously mentioned it's聽聽
[490]
not necessarily a case of where but when so you聽
can't always choose when a goal is going to go in聽聽
[496]
when the flow of play is going to change you聽
can observe and react to that which is a large聽聽
[501]
part of trading in place successfully but if聽
you break up your stakes so that it's logical聽聽
[507]
and you can offset your position potentially maybe聽
opening sort of the first third of your trade at聽聽
[513]
one specific point in time when you see what聽
is happening that you expect from your pre-game聽聽
[517]
research then staking up a little bit further聽
you know five minutes afterwards coming towards聽聽
[522]
the end of the first half that's highly advisable聽
too because it gives you you know the best average聽聽
[527]
position you can have if a goal goes in in that聽
mean time then you're obviously going to be in a聽聽
[532]
positive position anyway so i'd advise uh breaking聽
up your stakes and averaging out that position聽聽
[539]
what that shouldn't be confused with though聽
is the complete opposite of risk management聽聽
[543]
which is doubling up stakes because you're losing聽
you need to do this with a conscious reason which聽聽
[549]
is logical and beneficial to your overall position聽
still managing your risk all the while so the next聽聽
[555]
point in managing your position has to be managing聽
the what ifs and it's important to realize that聽聽
[560]
you should know the answer to this before the game聽
even starts before your trade is open before you聽聽
[565]
are engaged in that trading position so what are聽
you going to do if a goal goes in straight away聽聽
[572]
and the trade travels in your favor are you going聽
to lock out the profit indefinitely and walk away聽聽
[576]
from it hedging up completely are you going to聽
close out your net position and let it run as聽聽
[581]
a free bet further into the game are you going to聽
offset your position so that you're managing your聽聽
[585]
risk but you still believe the trade is going to聽
move positively in your favor or not you know if聽聽
[592]
this doesn't happen in game then how long is it聽
going to be until you exit the trade have you聽聽
[596]
already picked a predefined exit point considering聽
that you know it may be a losing trade be it on聽聽
[602]
time or activity in game it's absolutely crucial聽
that you understand all these different variables聽聽
[608]
how the trade is going to plan out as well as聽
what you expect to see on pitch before you even聽聽
[613]
open the trade to manage your position effectively聽
so when it comes to trading 2.5 goals markets on聽聽
[620]
the betting exchanges it's really important聽
that you look at statistics the information聽聽
[624]
available to you you have some kind of trading聽
plan and you're looking for that imbalance in the聽聽
[629]
market that's going to favor you over a longer聽
period of trades even if this particular trade聽聽
[634]
doesn't go in your favor so do your homework know聽
your stats and understand where those bright spots聽聽
[638]
are likely to be before the match even begins as聽
i mentioned in a previous upload last month about聽聽
[643]
premier league prediction check out the end screen聽
it's been one of our most popular videos today
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage