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Palantir is Sandbagging!! What it Means For PLTR Stock Investors!! (Audio issues) - YouTube
Channel: Felix & Friends
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felix here guys and my apologies i've been聽
absent this weekend what have i been doing well聽聽
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i got dragged backwards through through a hedge聽
apparently some people say my hair now looks like聽聽
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george washington's well i should tell you that聽
i have a baba who's 86 years old he's phenomenal聽聽
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but he did get a little bit carried away in the聽
sides when he does that i come out looking like聽聽
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george washington the younger so enough of that i聽
actually spent the weekend working on an options聽聽
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trading course a lot of you people have been聽
asking about that and i have structured 115聽聽
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lecture options course and i'm still in聽
the process of recording it but for you聽聽
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lucky guys out there i am pre-selling it and聽
i'm giving you a nice big whopping 39 percent聽聽
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off discount until the 21st of june only so get聽
on that guys the links below for phoenix and聽聽
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friends.org forward slash options it's also the聽
descriptions including the coupon code make sure聽聽
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you make a note of those coupon codes of course聽
the master stocks course is also still available聽聽
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and incredibly popular you also become聽
part of our private chat group where you聽聽
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can ask me whatever you want and discuss or聽
invest in strategies especially on the uh聽聽
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option site because options options are exciting聽
obviously i like options but we are not here to聽聽
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talk about options we're here to talk about talent聽
here what's the big news well there was a really聽聽
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really long really detailed uh post on reddit聽
and reddit isn't always my favorite choice聽聽
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of of posts but this chaps really does homework聽
and i want to go through it because what does聽聽
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it show us it shows us that growth is being聽
sandbagged i think on purpose by alex carpenco聽聽
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they want to not play this you know catching聽
up with expectation game therefore they are聽聽
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really pushing expectations down and that way聽
they have an easier time each quarter to deliver聽聽
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numbers that beat the market and that makes sense聽
i mean that is essentially what everybody does and聽聽
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wall street is just palantir seem to be doing it聽
a little bit more aggressively than some now as聽聽
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always guys this is not financial advice this聽
is just for entertainment only please always聽聽
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bear that in mind and um here we are we are back聽
so i'm going to show you this actually here this聽聽
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chap here or lady i don't know uh rich up his聽
i don't know what this um what that means but聽聽
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that's the user and done an incredible job聽
so huge thank you to you and i wanted to聽聽
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just highlight a little bit of that as i have聽
danny on the screen and share it with you and聽聽
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if you're wondering why i'm looking different聽
i'm standing at the moment i just sort of find聽聽
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it nice you can move about you know and do do聽
a few different things as you're standing so聽聽
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it says what we are knowing at the moment is that聽
palantir has either 180 customers or 161 customers聽聽
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and you're thinking that's a big difference聽
and they're spending 8.1 million on average聽聽
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each customer is which is just over 2 million a聽
quarter and the revenue for q2 is estimated at聽聽
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around 363 million which is almost exactly the聽
same as guidance the number of contracts we'd聽聽
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like to see for the four years around 175 to meet聽
30 percent plus growth 30 is what we get promised聽聽
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year on year and um we're going to run through a聽
couple of these numbers because it's it shows us聽聽
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i think how easy it is to get there but聽
i'm gonna have to put my aircon on first聽聽
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because it is absolutely swelteringly hot yeah聽
so i make myself a little bit bigger here you聽聽
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get a little bit more of me you see that that's聽
that's that's how generous i'm feeling today聽聽
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i'm thinking make yourself smaller go away right聽
so that we have the uk government contracts of聽聽
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1.66 billion which are advertised as being 31聽
people are part of that now we assume say that聽聽
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each of those 31 companies get an equal share in聽
that that makes it 53 million over three years we聽聽
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have you know most of these contracts we've talked聽
about the doj the sec air force ice royal navy聽聽
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austrac et cetera we've covered most of these so聽
these are the contracts that we've heard of since聽聽
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the beginning of april so these are q2 contracts聽
and this chapter is fantastic i love people with聽聽
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this detail to make tables and they sort of聽
assigned numbers to them here as far as we know聽聽
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some we don't know like the uk royal navy or聽
um ringer we don't know the amounts exactly and聽聽
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he then says you know the ball case therefore聽
is that um we know from the q1 earnings call聽聽
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most of you guys probably listened in on that聽
with me you know that there were 11 customers um聽聽
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and speaking of live chords the annual general聽
meeting of palantir is tomorrow guys and i'm聽聽
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going to live stream it because i like to live聽
stream these things i'd say 0.0001 of investors聽聽
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ever attend an agm an annual general meeting聽
which is basically where all you shareholders聽聽
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can execute your rights to share all this to聽
vote for the board approve and you know all聽聽
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these things and management has to present and i'm聽
gonna livestream that because no one ever seems to聽聽
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and i think it's really really weird and it's just聽
a bit a little bit like earnings calls uh perhaps聽聽
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a little bit less numbers driven but still i think聽
a very very important milestone happens only once聽聽
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a year so join me on that tomorrow guys i'll put聽
the link at the end of the video so you can uh set聽聽
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a reminder so um we know there are 11 customers聽
for the quarter and therefore he's saying here聽聽
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that the 169 customers which most people are聽
sort of assuming out there might be too high聽聽
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because at the end of the previous quarter we聽
had 139 so we should be have around 150. um and聽聽
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then the customers we've added in q2 that we know聽
of are so far also 11 so that brings us up to 180聽聽
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and at the average of 2 million per customer which聽
is the average that brings us up to 364.5 million聽聽
[361]
revenue in q2 which would be above the 360 million聽
revenue guidance that palliative has given us for聽聽
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the quarter so that would be a beat and a beat is聽
important now a different reputation he's saying聽聽
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here let's assume that originally we have 139聽
and that yes they added 11 so that means 150.聽聽
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and therefore we only get to 303 million聽
q1 earnings um now he's saying here well聽聽
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we actually had 341 million earnings in q1 and聽
i hope you're still with me here and he said if聽聽
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i say by saying we are missing 37 million here聽
and some of that could just come from this total聽聽
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remaining deal value and that's 2.8 billion and聽
that's important so palantir basically has this聽聽
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pipeline of active signed contracts that will pay聽
palantir money over the next couple of years which聽聽
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is 2.8 billion us dollars and not everybody's聽
aware of that so he's saying assuming they get聽聽
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no new contracts in june and get the same 37.25聽
million again for q2 from this mystical magical聽聽
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pipeline the total remaining deal value then we聽
are gonna get to 326 million plus the um well聽聽
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so we get to 326 million just from the contracts聽
we already know about plus this magical number聽聽
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that comes from the total remaining deal value聽
so we get a 363 again and um palantir says they聽聽
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expect 360 million so we can totally see where聽
they're coming from i think they're going to beat聽聽
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that number and i think they're going to beat that聽
number every single quarter and i think they are聽聽
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just playing wall street here in a sense they're聽
just saying you know what we're going to give you聽聽
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a really low number for our growth to make it聽
30 because we are confident we can beat that聽聽
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no matter what all the time and yes it means our聽
stock price is going to be a little bit lower聽聽
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but we don't care because this way we have聽
an easy life we always beat expectations聽聽
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and we like to be conservative and we'll be known聽
eventually as the conservatively managed company聽聽
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and people will therefore like the company they'll聽
always be like well if they're saying this number聽聽
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that means they are really really sure and that聽
is actually exactly what smart investor relations聽聽
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does you build a reputation okay i can move out of聽
the screen now right i'm moving about a little bit聽聽
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too much i'll try to stand more still so um he's聽
saying it the goal was to show that how every聽聽
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contract they tell us about really matters and i聽
always say that i always report contracts and say聽聽
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it's two million it's three million and people say聽
well it doesn't matter well and then i show you聽聽
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my discounted cash flow and we look at that two聽
guys of course we'll also look at the chat here聽聽
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at the moment and what's happening on thursday聽
because thursday is an important day for the week聽聽
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and you know last year we just had over a聽
billion in revenue so a 10 million dollar聽聽
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contract matters it's like one percent right so聽
we only want 30 growth so you know we don't need聽聽
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all that many of them to get to these to these聽
target numbers here because they are relatively聽聽
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low by the way guys if you want to get to my聽
dcf and play with it you are very welcome to聽聽
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and you can get there through the patreon link聽
down below as always so he's basically saying聽聽
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um i want you to all to understand how easily聽
palantir is making it look to achieve the 30聽聽
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revenue growth target and i want you all to聽
understand that wall street can do whatever聽聽
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they like to the share price but the company聽
is looking as strong as it ever has and i agree聽聽
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with that i think nothing has changed i think聽
the growth trajectory is exactly the same in聽聽
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fact it is better than what we have promised聽
last year the contracts keep coming in the聽聽
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government spend is absolutely insane and that's聽
really just starting in my view and therefore聽聽
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i'm bullish on politia because nothing's changed聽
yes this is the shock stock price has come down聽聽
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but just because it's cheaper doesn't mean it's聽
any worse right as a company or as a stock just聽聽
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doesn't look as good in the portfolio i totally聽
appreciate that but i like to buy stocks for聽聽
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the long run and that's always what i teach in my聽
stock course guys is how to make a long-term plan聽聽
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and let your portfolio compound for you and make聽
really really easy money for you so check out the聽聽
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course link below guys to stocks um i'll put it up聽
again here felix and friends.org stocks or slash聽聽
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options depending on what tickles your fancy聽
uh and what you really want to learn about so聽聽
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really the message here guys is that we will聽
easily achieve the sales targets palantir set聽聽
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itself for the year i think they are going to聽
fly through the 30 uh probably in q3 and then聽聽
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q4 is going to be a bonus and historically q3聽
q4 have always been better quarters for them聽聽
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i i don't know whether that was because of the old聽
way of working that they had people pay in advance聽聽
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or whether that is because people聽
perhaps have expirations and budgets聽聽
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changing um at those particular times of the year聽
but that's historically what it's always been so聽聽
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i'm still very very bullish on this i think聽
60 dollars are still absolutely fair value聽聽
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and that is working on 30 and less growth and i'll聽
show you that here again because you can't see it聽聽
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i'll make it a little bit bigger as well so you聽
can see here my growth assumptions for the year 32聽聽
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for next year 31 28 i don't actually mean that聽
i don't actually believe valentia's growth is聽聽
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going to fall off but when you make these models聽
you want to be conservative because it's always聽聽
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easy to put in super super high numbers but you聽
kind of want to earn on the side of caution and聽聽
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that's what i always do guys and i encourage you聽
make your own guys i teach you how to do it in聽聽
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my course you get a template i totally literally聽
hold your hand through it i tell you where to get聽聽
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the numbers and you only have to put in about 10聽
numbers something like that per stock it's not a聽聽
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hard thing to do it's just people like to make it聽
out that it's difficult but it really isn't so um聽聽
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empower yourself and do your own analysis聽
because then you really know what you're聽聽
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doing right now as for momentum the stocks looking聽
looking absolutely fantastic i would say i mean聽聽
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momentum doesn't get any better than that um all聽
the momentum indicators are looking basically very聽聽
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very happy i mean let's pull up a momentum here聽
for example and you know again i i don't really聽聽
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need to uh explain this it's doing that that's聽
basically what momentum is doing as does every聽聽
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other indicator what are we struggling with here聽
slightly well the good news is that we are above聽聽
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the ema line so these are the exponential moving聽
average lines we're above the 20 50 in 100 day聽聽
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line and if you're wondering where the 200 day聽
line is there isn't one yet the company's too聽聽
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young but you can see down here you see that red聽
sort of turquoise greenish orange number rather聽聽
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line uh so we above that and that is good because聽
that is usually been a bit of a cap for us and聽聽
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it's it's finally trending up again we are still聽
somewhat below the 100 day moving average line聽聽
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which is a big blue thick one up here that's聽
sitting at the moment at 25.25 so that would聽聽
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really be absolutely tremendous if we managed to聽
get through that because that would really give us聽聽
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a whole different level of support what we are聽
struggling with at the moment ever so slightly is聽聽
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we are trying to break through the peaks of the聽
last after dip three as i named it imaginatively聽聽
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uh dip four was the one after that uh we had聽
you know peak three and these levels up here so聽聽
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we're trying to get through so you see if i put聽
a line through that can you see that here that聽聽
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red line under the lines but this聽
red line here you connect that over聽聽
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you can see it was not not the last training day聽
of the day before it was the peak of the market聽聽
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and then yesterday well friday rather we broke聽
through it came back down um and closed well聽聽
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quite significantly below it so that's kind of聽
what's holding us up at the moment really is it's聽聽
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it's this line here which is about 25 25 sorry聽
24 25 i put in the flag here as well at 24 27.聽聽
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um and don't worry about the decimal聽
to descend or two doesn't really matter聽聽
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either way but you know we had a tr聽
i've had a tremendous run so far so聽聽
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momentum still looking very good volume's looking聽
healthy so i i'm looking quite optimistic here聽聽
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now there is one thing that has me a little bit聽
concerned and that is inflation numbers are out on聽聽
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thursday and u.s inflation rate is forecast聽
at 4.7 percent now if we are above that
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then the growth stocks are going to get hit again聽
and why because here it is in one sentence well聽聽
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maybe two sentences the stocks like palantir聽
are valued on future earnings so like five to聽聽
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ten years out and those earnings in all of these聽
models these dcf models we were talking about聽聽
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earlier are brought back to present value聽
the present value takes into account zero聽聽
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risk alternative investments and the u.s聽
government interest rate or the us government聽聽
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10-year bond is exactly that it's perceived as a聽
zero risk assuming the u.s government always pay聽聽
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it's still an assumption but it is as near zero聽
risk as you can get and therefore if the return聽聽
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the yield on the u.s 10-year bonds go up which聽
is the interest rate measure also then the value聽聽
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of the more speculative 10-year out growth stock聽
revenue the present value of that future earnings聽聽
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becomes less and roughly for each percentage point聽
we go up we lose about 10 in value for our growth聽聽
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stocks now i think it's pretty much already聽
priced in that's what's what the correction was聽聽
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but the market is going to temporarily overreact聽
each time we do get higher inflation numbers so聽聽
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good buy opportunities perhaps i think that聽
certainly is for for the quality growth stock so聽聽
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there we are guys uh that's all i really聽
wanted to show you guys check out my um聽聽
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my options course um it's a pre-sell as i said聽
at the moment it's launching on june the 21st聽聽
[978]
and the coupon code is make money聽
because that's what i want you to do guys聽聽
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enroll now and say 39 and you can see um here聽
just all the stuff that i'm going to put in it聽聽
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um absolutely everything to give you strategies聽
to give you all the tools to give you the edge聽聽
[995]
to actually trade options and have a predictable聽
outcome what does that mean it means you can earn聽聽
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passive income because you know what the risks are聽
you know what the probabilities are and therefore聽聽
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with sufficiently frequent trading and this聽
doesn't need to take up a lot of your time聽聽
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guys you can have a job you can have children or聽
family whatever it does not take up a lot of time聽聽
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you just have to understand some of the um the聽
lingo a little bit and you have to understand聽聽
[1023]
some key strategies and these are the same聽
strategies that professional traders are聽聽
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using here and as i said there are 15 lectures聽
so there's a little bit of something to like聽聽
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know your way into but once you understand it聽
it gives you a whole different set of tools聽聽
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to supplement your perhaps more usual聽
uh long stop purchasing um and and even聽聽
[1046]
you know in light of all this amc madness naked聽
shorts and all this stuff i i show you how you can聽聽
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do that i show you how you can make synthetic聽
shorts how you can create synthetic shares聽聽
[1055]
it's perfectly legal you can do it聽
yourself you don't have to buy stocks聽聽
[1058]
if you don't want to you can use less capital聽
and still enjoy the same if not higher return聽聽
[1064]
with predictable outcomes so um i highly recommend聽
it it's uh it really is something i think that we聽聽
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should be taught at school quite frankly but聽
you know certain people don't wish us to know聽聽
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and therefore we are not taught this stuff so聽
you're gonna learn yourself and i'm here to guide聽聽
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you through it um thank you for watching guys聽
i look forward to seeing you on the next video
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