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Rivian's Quiet Period is Ending: What Could it Mean for Trading Rivian Stock? | RIVN - YouTube
Channel: Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise
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hey everyone just wanted to check in with our聽
quick video um been super busy this past week uh聽聽
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in fact i've gotten behind some of the comments聽
again that was pretty good through thanksgiving聽聽
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and um but i will definitely try to get back to聽
those but i wanted to make a quick video today um聽聽
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probably a little less polished than most but聽
i just wanted to share some information with聽聽
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you on rivian and their quiet period ending um聽
we've talked about quiet periods in the past聽聽
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on the channel but i know a lot of you guys are聽
new to the channel because of rivian because we聽聽
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have done some videos on it since the ipo聽
so i want to talk a little bit about how聽聽
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a quiet period can affect rivian and how聽
that might affect your trading strategy聽聽
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and we'll do that as we'll consider some of聽
the things that have happened since the ipo聽聽
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so really quickly i want to show you a few things聽
on the screen that has impacted the price of聽聽
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the stock and then we'll talk a little bit more聽
about the quiet period and how that might affect聽聽
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your trading strategy and again then i'll聽
give you the rivian quiet period ending date聽聽
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so hang on for that but first let's talk a聽
little bit about the stock and where it's gone聽聽
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so as you can see here this is how the stock has聽
traded since it started trading on november 10th聽聽
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as you remember prices 78 dollars opened up聽
in that low hundred dollar range and then聽聽
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we went on for a few days where it just was like聽
the sky's the limit and so um so it was looking聽聽
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pretty good for people that missed out you were聽
probably concerned that if you really wanted it聽聽
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um other people were probably thrilled to聽
death that they got in early uh then we聽聽
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started to see a pretty quick decline here and聽
there was a few things that um tend to really聽聽
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impact the stock so there's like there's a couple聽
things we want to talk about today and just i want聽聽
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to give you my thoughts on if they're a big deal聽
or not a big deal so the first thing was the news聽聽
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with ford and as you can see on the screen that聽
the headline ford deriving we're breaking up聽聽
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and so it's a couple things number one ford has聽
invested in rivian for quite a while up until the聽聽
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end of october we thought that was a five percent聽
stake and one of the um viewers out there in the聽聽
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comments noted that that was actually 12 and that聽
that is true that actually got updated at the end聽聽
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of october but i didn't put that in a follow-up聽
video so i always appreciate when somebody points聽聽
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something out and adds to the discussion so聽
really appreciate that so it's 12 percent stake聽聽
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but at the end of the day like i never was worried聽
about them with rivian and actually building聽聽
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vehicles for ford we had known earlier which聽
had mentioned in one of the videos was that they聽聽
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had been working on a lincoln suv that got聽
discontinued like they basically started聽聽
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working on it and then the plans just changed聽
and they dropped it when i looked at rivian聽聽
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i did never put into my calculations and聽
you guys know i put out a more recent聽聽
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revenue projections video didn't put in any聽
revenue that we expected from working with ford聽聽
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so that was to me not a big issue and at this聽
point it's not that ford is bailing on rivian聽聽
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in fact again they like i said they just聽
have 12 percent of the stake of the company聽聽
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however they're not looking to sell any of the聽
shares at this point although nothing they really聽聽
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could because they were in the lockup period but聽
they actually increased their investment recently聽聽
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so as far as my opinion is this is not a huge聽
deal now you can you disagree with me definitely聽聽
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put that in the comments but for me it's not a big聽
deal so the second big piece of news that came out聽聽
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um again which which coincided with a lot of聽
the stock price dropping was that amazon backed聽聽
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ev firm rivian delays deliveries of r1s suv's聽
report and so that came out see november 24th聽聽
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um and to me this is the bigger deal because聽
we expected based on what was in the company's聽聽
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ipo or s1 filing rivian said that聽
we could expect the first deliveries聽聽
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to happen basically by the end of the year聽
and now what we're seeing is that rivian has聽聽
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now started sending emails to the customers to聽
inform that the delivery window has been changed聽聽
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to between may and july at the earliest聽
okay so to me this is a big deal because聽聽
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for two things one in the grand scheme of things聽
it's probably not you you're pushing things back聽聽
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but one of the biggest concerns i had with rivian聽
was it's a new company and they have to execute聽聽
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and they're going to execute quickly聽
because there's a lot of competition coming聽聽
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and you know they just can't afford to fall聽
behind so by 2030 this will be a blip however聽聽
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you start to wonder can they execute as smooth as聽
they need to with all of this competition coming聽聽
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and this has been one of my biggest concerns with聽
rivian i like the look of the products however聽聽
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you're going to be competing with some products聽
are going to be a lot cheaper or a lot more cost聽聽
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effective and so when people have more options聽
it's it's going to be potentially a problem uh聽聽
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for the company so i'm more concerned about that聽
we did talk about the revenue projections and聽聽
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which i basically said by the end of聽
2024 um you would expect for that year in聽聽
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2024 2025 so this will put a blip into that but聽
where it's going to hurt is on those first few聽聽
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earnings reports um and then we're going to be聽
really interested to see what the guidance is聽聽
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so a couple things you really want to keep an聽
eye on there when it comes to um when it comes聽聽
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to rivian all right so that leads us to the main聽
part of this video which is the quiet period so聽聽
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and for time's sake i just went to investopedia聽
just to show you this we've actually talked about聽聽
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quiet periods before on the channel so again聽
this is for really anybody new that's not聽聽
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heard me talk about them but just to give you a聽
really quick idea is when a company is going to聽聽
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do an ipo such as rivian did there's a period of聽
time where there's no information that comes out聽聽
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so what i want to sort of just jump聽
up ahead here okay is the time frame聽聽
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so in the green part it talks about the quiet聽
period begins when the registration statement聽聽
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is made effective and lasts for 40 days after聽
the stock starts trading and is for analysts聽聽
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employed by the offering managing underwriters聽
but then i put in here in the yellow for and 25聽聽
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days for analysts employed by other underwriters聽
participating in the ipo so for all types of聽聽
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purposes the quiet period is going to end 25 days聽
after the stock started trading and again for the聽聽
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sake of the time for this video and again just the聽
time that i have i'm going to link a video for you聽聽
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in the description that talks about a little bit聽
more about the quiet period it's to one of the i聽聽
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actually applied it to another company um and just聽
talked about it there so definitely check that聽聽
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video out but for all intents and purposes for the聽
quiet period is you're talking about underwriters聽聽
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or analysts that's involved in the ipo so right聽
off the bat you feel like there's a positive聽聽
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news that's going to come from the companies or聽
the analysts but what tends to happen is based聽聽
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on where the stock is trading so if the stock is聽
trading way higher than the ipo price when the聽聽
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analysts come out there's a good chance that they聽
could say you know the stock is priced pretty high聽聽
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we don't recommend it being a buy聽
right now whether it's a hold or sell聽聽
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whatever but typically the analyst reports are聽
pretty positive so we know that they're going to聽聽
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be to predisposed to be positive because they're聽
going to participate in the company's ipo however聽聽
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it really works best when you know that the price聽
is really close to the ipo price or even below it聽聽
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if you see a quiet period and for a stock and the聽
stock is trading well below the ipo price or right聽聽
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around it you can be pretty sure that the analysts聽
are going to come up with a buy have a price聽聽
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target that's higher than where it is and it's聽
going to push the stock up at least in the short聽聽
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term so just for the traders out there the short聽
term guys that like looking in get in and get out聽聽
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it's something to keep an eye on but for rivian聽
you're talking about a few things going on here聽聽
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the stock right now we saw was about 110 as close聽
to the end of the day thursday which brings us聽聽
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to about what is that 20 30 30 some dollars聽
above the ipo price so it's it's above um and聽聽
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we know there's a lot of issues going on with聽
this new variant that's out there so the stock聽聽
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you know with the pandemic that's still being聽
an issue um and we also know that we have some聽聽
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bad news that we're factoring in here and again聽
we're going to get at least delay of some revenue聽聽
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by these suvs coming out later um so we're聽
going to have to really watch more of the news聽聽
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you know again so how well is rivian going to聽
execute with getting their products to the market聽聽
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and that answer is going to take a little while to聽
unfold but we're going to find this over time and聽聽
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the question for you tell yourself as an investor聽
is do you feel like it's a safe time to jump in聽聽
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and do you trust that the company can execute聽
when you see this news so quick after the ipo that聽聽
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there's already a delay it has to cause some red聽
flags there so something to definitely keep in聽聽
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mind so getting back to my main point about聽
where the stock is trading based on the ipo聽聽
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price this is going to be a trickier one聽
it's not a cut and dry um had the stock聽聽
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still at that 170 dollar i would say you're聽
not going to get a bump from it at this 110聽聽
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dollar range you could i'm still skeptical if you聽
would now again if the stock was trading a lot聽聽
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lower um or below the ipo price i would say good聽
time to sort of jump in at least get that initial聽聽
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bump um you know again you can't never predict聽
anything but you just tend to see these trends so聽聽
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just for something for you to keep in mind that's聽
why i want to get this video out so quickly聽聽
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and even though um again it's a little a little聽
quick here but anyways so of course now that聽聽
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we talked about this with the quiet period聽
the big question is when does it exactly end聽聽
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so one more time we'll look at the screen and i聽
have a calendar up here and as you can see or if聽聽
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we look into november this when the ipo happened聽
was november 10th so if we count our days 7 14聽聽
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21 and then we get to december and we聽
get 22 23 24 25th days over the weekend聽聽
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so you can pretty much expect on monday december聽
the 6th is when they're going to start seeing聽聽
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analyst reports so i wanted to get this video聽
out so that you have friday so if you see this聽聽
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tonight or during the day friday that if you want聽
to act on this you can uh again i'm not telling聽聽
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you whether you should buy stock or sell stock or聽
i'm not telling you anything like that it's just聽聽
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understanding that the quiet period is ending and聽
it is one of those times where you can consider聽聽
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um you know looking at what the price is and聽
consider do you think the stock could get a聽聽
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bounce from it or or not so anyways that's what聽
this video was really for just to give you a quick聽聽
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idea on the quiet period some of the most recent聽
news and why the stock might be where it is and聽聽
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you know hopefully gives you some idea of what you聽
want to do with it so with that being said i hope聽聽
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you liked this video so again please push the聽
like button if you're new to the channel please聽聽
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subscribe we'd love to have you on board um you聽
know we talk a lot about ipos but we have a lot聽聽
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of other things coming so this is not going聽
to be a 100 percent rivian channel like some聽聽
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other people might do um it's just that there's聽
been a lot going on early so i wanted to cover聽聽
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all that and uh and we'll talk about more about聽
rivian as as major things come up but we'll also聽聽
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have some other things so i like to do some聽
general investing types of strategies and and聽聽
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whatnot and i actually have more of a general type聽
of video planned sooner than later so definitely聽聽
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uh put that notification bell on so you know聽
when it comes as soon as it comes out and then聽聽
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and then as i always like to just share with聽
you anybody that's new i have a second channel聽聽
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it's called how to with kevin which i'll link聽
for you in the description it just shows you聽聽
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some other things that i've done and we've only聽
done a few videos so far but it's gone pretty聽聽
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well and i enjoy it um it's just non-financial聽
type of things and you know we all deal with new聽聽
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things and try to figure it out well that's聽
something i love to do whether it's you know聽聽
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building something whether it's maintaining聽
something whether it's fixing something聽聽
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um whether it's learning finance but i try to keep聽
the financial part uh onto this channel which is聽聽
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sort of the main channel but if you are interested聽
definitely check out my other channel how to with聽聽
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kevin i love to have you there uh anyways uh have聽
a great rest of the week a great weekend i will be聽聽
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talking to you guys sooner than later again been聽
super busy so if you have any comments from me in聽聽
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the other videos i'll be getting to them hopefully聽
in the next couple of days but uh it's that time聽聽
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of year things get crazy right so anyways i look聽
forward to talking to you guys soon take care
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