馃攳
The Trade Desk (TTD), eBay (EBAY), Boston Beer Co. (SAM) Stocks: The Big 3 - YouTube
Channel: TD Ameritrade Network
[0]
good morning to you gentlemen lucas i
[2]
know you'll start with the trade desk
[4]
today you're somewhat bullish on this
[6]
one tell us a little bit about it
[9]
hey nicole it's good to see you i'm
[11]
hoping that i can get ben on the same
[13]
side of these trades last time we were
[16]
not on the same side but
[17]
before i i start and tell you about
[19]
these stocks i was looking through our
[20]
data and what map signals does is we
[22]
look for the big money and wherever the
[24]
big money's going that's where we want
[25]
to be there are so many stocks getting
[28]
bought right now it is crazy but the
[30]
good news is it's a lot of high quality
[32]
stocks so i wanted to focus in on a few
[35]
stocks that aren't at all time highs but
[37]
have a historical
[40]
precedent i mean these are great
[41]
companies that continue to
[43]
grow their revenue and their earnings
[45]
year over year so one of my all-time
[48]
favorite stocks is the trade desk you
[50]
can look at the chart it's kind of just
[51]
sitting there
[53]
but if we're starting to see all of the
[55]
buying that's going into stocks you know
[57]
broad-based uh literally yesterday we
[60]
saw the most buying that we've seen in
[63]
four months so if i'm of the opinion
[66]
that a rising tide is going to lift all
[68]
boats ttd is one of these high quality
[70]
names um you know digital ad space this
[73]
is just a phenomenal company and last i
[77]
checked the company was right around 75
[79]
so what i'd be looking to do
[82]
is selling one of the jan 70 puts
[85]
collecting wait hold the thoughts hold
[87]
the thought before you get to the trade
[89]
i want to get ben's thought before we
[91]
get to all the details on this we'll
[93]
give you a little glimpse folks but uh
[96]
we'll have lucas explain that in a
[97]
moment i would like for ben to give us
[100]
some commentary as well i mean i think
[102]
lucas made an interesting point that it
[104]
has shown that it can get up to some
[107]
levels for example the highs were set
[109]
last december um we're off those highs
[112]
ben your thoughts well i'd have to agree
[114]
i think uh good morning everybody first
[116]
of all lucas i think that we are in a
[118]
bit of a holding pattern and kind of in
[120]
a wait and see mode and i have a feeling
[123]
we're going to see eye to eye on a
[124]
couple of your trades but maybe not
[126]
necessarily this one i think that i'd
[128]
like to see something a little bit more
[130]
to the upside rather than the sideways
[131]
consolidation and let me show you the
[133]
charts and just let me show you why i'm
[135]
a little bit kind of on the sideline
[137]
with ttd still first and foremost the
[140]
rally we've seen throughout october
[142]
very strong i'll give you that 65 all
[144]
the way up to 83 and then well a little
[147]
bit sideways since this is what has me a
[151]
little bit concerned i guess in some
[152]
ways i just want to point out in terms
[154]
of here's the 15 minute time frame but
[157]
here's the hourly you can see on that
[159]
move up all the way up to 83 the really
[162]
well defined trajectory to the upside we
[164]
talk about this pattern that repeats
[166]
itself over and over again the high
[167]
conviction trade with the sideways
[169]
consolidation and hey you can see very
[172]
limited in terms of pullbacks all the
[173]
way up to that 82
[176]
99 high but then look at what's kind of
[178]
played out since then as we sort of hit
[180]
the play button on this one the move
[182]
back down to 73 here has me a bit
[185]
concerned because remember the areas of
[187]
consolidation the areas of value that we
[190]
were forming on the way up well you can
[191]
notice that we've started to take some
[193]
of those out on the way down so we're
[195]
kind of losing some of that directional
[197]
conviction to the upside quick look at
[199]
the daily again in a bit of a holding
[201]
pattern this kind of middle of the range
[203]
we've been in over the last year but the
[205]
weekly really says it all and a similar
[208]
situation in terms of what we're just
[209]
talking about that high conviction trade
[211]
sideways consolidation it plays out
[213]
again into october of 2020 before the
[216]
run up into the 97 level but this is
[219]
what i'm watching here right now i think
[220]
you need to approach this one from a
[222]
little bit more of a granular kind of
[224]
standpoint if you're looking to trade
[226]
ttd there's going to be opportunity but
[229]
it's just not necessarily on the bigger
[230]
picture time frame i think
[232]
and so lucas what do you think about
[234]
that when he's showing you that move
[236]
that it's making to the downside of late
[241]
yeah well i tend to be a little bit of a
[243]
longer term investor so i know ben is
[245]
looking at uh some
[248]
you know shorter time frames which is
[250]
definitely important to do i'm just
[252]
looking at the quality of the company
[254]
here uh you know you're talking about a
[256]
company that historically has a
[258]
three-year sales growth rate of 40
[260]
earnings growth rate of 65
[263]
when you see that you don't want to bet
[265]
against that that's called juice and so
[267]
whenever the stock is you know going a
[269]
little bit sideways maybe a little bit
[271]
of a downtrend
[273]
looking at the other types of companies
[275]
that are out there that are you know
[277]
basically tech based high quality
[279]
companies with you know earnings growth
[280]
sales growth those are the ones that are
[282]
getting accumulated right now i think it
[284]
would be it makes a whole lot of sense
[286]
that portfolio managers will be looking
[288]
for some high quality stocks that are
[290]
not participating in this rally to get
[292]
some alpha
[294]
what do you think about that he's a
[296]
little bit longer
[297]
term in the trade there ben couldn't
[300]
agree more in terms of that approach
[301]
towards picking individual names the
[304]
thing again that concerns me right now
[305]
is i think it's very random being in the
[307]
middle of this range that we just looked
[309]
at in terms of the weekly time frame
[310]
that's why i would shift my attention
[312]
more towards the intermediate more
[315]
towards the intraday now again you've
[316]
become a little bit more susceptible to
[318]
the granular which is why i think lucas
[319]
is right in terms of taking that longer
[321]
term approach but i think again a coin
[323]
toss at this point in terms of which way
[325]
we're going to tip as far as that weekly
[328]
time frame here's the weekly time frame
[330]
i mentioned a 97 down to what we'll call
[333]
it 50 but one thing i do like about this
[335]
is we're holding the middle to upper
[337]
extreme of this range which i think will
[340]
lend itself to traders favoring the long
[342]
side in terms of waiting for this one to
[344]
tip one way or the other but again very
[346]
random and limited in terms of
[348]
directional conviction as long as we
[349]
remain within that range 97 to 50.
[353]
all right that is the trade desk let's
[356]
turn our attention to the next trade and
[358]
move on to a name that is uh great for
[361]
consumers in retail ebay
[364]
lucas i know you were looking at ebay
[366]
which was a nice chart i was seeing how
[368]
it was up almost 60
[369]
in one year your thoughts on ebay here
[373]
i think ebay is an easy one to to wrap
[376]
your head around you know they've been
[377]
around a long time obviously and this
[380]
year specifically they continue to get a
[382]
lot of big money that is going into the
[384]
stock and it's a high quality stock it's
[387]
a low p e so it's definitely on the
[389]
cheaper side and i think whenever you
[391]
think about what's going on in the world
[393]
with the supply chain issues you know
[395]
you can't find certain products well you
[397]
know you might be checking ebay for that
[399]
type of uh uh you know stuff and
[402]
you know look whenever you look under
[404]
the hood you know the company they just
[406]
had earnings and obviously their revenue
[409]
grew they're raising prices for their
[412]
sellers things of that nature i think
[413]
this is a company that has somewhere to
[415]
be
[416]
and that's probably up and so i'm
[418]
looking at the same type of strategy of
[420]
a risk reversal in ebay
[423]
um okay and your thoughts ben i really
[426]
like when the fundamentals line up with
[428]
the technicals and i think we're seeing
[430]
that with ebay as lucas just mentioned i
[432]
personally
[433]
did that recently i was kind of looking
[435]
for a item that wasn't necessarily
[437]
available
[438]
through some of the newer retailers that
[440]
are out there and found it on ebay and
[443]
after not having shopped there for years
[445]
found myself actually the recipient of a
[448]
new ebay purchase uh just last week now
[451]
that i think of it but the chart really
[453]
kind of says it all for me in terms of
[455]
why i like it from a technical
[457]
perspective you can see not a lot going
[458]
on since the beginning of october a nice
[461]
run up from 69 we'll call it to 81 and
[464]
we're kind of just in the middle of that
[466]
range right now but this is where it
[468]
starts to get exciting as you kind of
[470]
move away from that intraday look the
[472]
daily time frame the move up that we've
[474]
been seeing take a look at this and the
[477]
channel to the upside and how ebay has
[480]
really respected the lower extreme we're
[482]
talking well since uh the beginning of
[485]
uh what was it november last year one
[488]
two three
[489]
seven times it looks like on the way up
[491]
just recently coming off that level
[493]
should we make it through that middle 78
[496]
79 here we'll be talking potentially for
[498]
a re-test the upper extreme of this
[499]
channel quick look at that channel and
[502]
where things stand i mean this was just
[504]
part of a bigger trend environment we've
[505]
seen off the pandemic lows the spike
[507]
down to 25. remember the pattern we
[509]
talked about a minute ago the high
[511]
conviction trade sideways and that
[513]
are up and then sideways consolidation
[515]
well ebay did just what investors were
[517]
looking for after that it continued that
[519]
bullish momentum and it's in that
[522]
well-defined channel as you can see
[523]
again we want to see it up and through
[525]
the 78 level the bulls do that is and
[528]
ultimately take out that 81 level to
[530]
continue the trend environment that
[532]
we've been seeing the bid activity this
[534]
is a pretty well defined one and i
[536]
always say we're seeing price activity
[538]
along lines like that it means that
[540]
bigger money is involved in this one
[542]
you're not getting that kind of chop
[543]
that
[544]
sideways sawtooth type pattern this is
[546]
high conviction staircase type a
[548]
well-defined trend bottom left corner
[550]
top right corner price activity
[553]
high conviction staircase we have higher
[556]
lows lucas you look at this you actually
[559]
said that you thought it was a little
[561]
bit cheap here
[562]
and you're somewhat bullish tell us
[564]
about your trade
[567]
yeah so a couple of things uh when i'm
[570]
on the same side as ben i think that is
[572]
a home run number one and he just talked
[574]
about
[575]
the staircase i am always talking about
[578]
stocks the best ones out there you know
[580]
showing this stairway to heaven over
[582]
time ebay is one of those
[584]
um so i couldn't agree more with uh what
[587]
ben is saying here and i'm looking at
[590]
selling one of the jan 70 puts
[592]
collecting a dollar 63
[595]
and then using those proceeds to buy one
[597]
of the jan 85 calls for a dollar 27 so
[600]
you're gonna get a little bit of a small
[602]
net credit on this trade
[604]
would be getting some exposure to the
[606]
buy side below 70 and obviously be able
[608]
to participate above 85 if the stock
[611]
breaks out to those levels
[614]
and your thoughts been on that trade
[616]
couldn't agree more in terms of that
[618]
staircase lucas i oftentimes think of it
[620]
as these areas of value that the market
[622]
leaves us to kind of follow along the
[625]
path to the upside in this case
[627]
obviously we see that play out in the
[628]
trend environment to the downside as
[629]
well but the one thing i like about
[631]
those footprints that it leaves us is if
[633]
we start to retrace we can see that
[635]
pretty in a well-defined manner as well
[637]
and
[638]
hopefully as trend followers sooner
[640]
rather than later we see we start to
[642]
take out some of those levels or areas i
[644]
should say that were established on the
[646]
way up no indication of that right now
[648]
in terms of ebay if anything as
[649]
mentioned it's been honoring that lower
[651]
extreme of the channel here you can see
[653]
it on the way up and uh just recently
[655]
bouncing off that 70 support level
[658]
okay and then you guys have to stop
[661]
being so nice to each other stop
[663]
agreeing okay
[665]
i mean honestly this it's evident it
[667]
really is evident that it is a great
[669]
chart moving higher in the way that it
[671]
has and we and we did a great job
[673]
breaking it down so i appreciate that
[674]
lucas last but not least you're talking
[676]
beer here and you have sam as your name
[680]
boston beer and you said um a lot of the
[682]
negative has been priced into the stock
[684]
tell us more about that
[687]
yeah so this is going to be the opposite
[689]
of the stairway to heaven this is going
[690]
to look like the highway to hell
[693]
this stock
[694]
the boston beer company you know they
[697]
a lot of alcoholic beverages we know
[699]
that that business isn't going to go
[701]
away anytime soon but the stock has been
[703]
penalized the company's been penalized
[705]
due to the hard seltzer sales slow down
[708]
specifically with uh with truly now
[711]
their latest earnings uh
[714]
release whenever they were talking
[716]
management was discussing how there
[717]
actually might be some growth next year
[720]
in that segment and so when you see a
[722]
stock that used to be thirteen hundred
[724]
dollars now sitting around five hundred
[726]
dollars basically has fallen sixty
[728]
percent i think that there is a good
[730]
value set up for this stock now it's a
[733]
thin trader but any width of positivity
[737]
this stock could re-rate a lot higher
[740]
and faster so i think this stock is a
[742]
great play for value hunters
[745]
ah okay and ben your thoughts i mean can
[748]
a name like this that goes into that
[750]
consumer category move as quickly as
[753]
lucas thinks it may be able to i don't
[755]
know i look at
[756]
sam and i get bitter beer face
[759]
for the most part when i look at the
[761]
price activity and yes it has been
[763]
on the decline to say the least let's
[765]
dive into the intraday i've got the
[768]
hourly time frame you can see the move
[770]
after earnings that we saw back in july
[772]
and how we really have yet to recover a
[775]
pretty uh well-defined trend environment
[777]
lower now this is on the most
[778]
intermediate time frame and as we step
[780]
away from this you can see well okay
[783]
that move low we just mentioned in july
[784]
the gap it was just part of a bigger
[786]
picture move off that 1350 level here
[789]
you can see again the trajectory to the
[791]
downside the highway to hell as luke has
[794]
called it and it certainly has been down
[796]
to
[797]
479.80 most recently at the end of
[799]
october
[800]
that's a low that the bulls do not want
[803]
to see this one get below but hey
[805]
speaking of that move lower i want to
[807]
just kind of remind your viewers of the
[809]
conversation we had a minute ago a
[810]
couple things i was pointing out the
[812]
high conviction trade to the upside we
[813]
certainly saw that in
[815]
well the spring and the summer of 2020
[818]
areas of consolidation that form and
[820]
then a breakout a new area of
[822]
consolidation around a thousand the most
[824]
recent breakout we saw failed though
[826]
this was key and then as we were just
[828]
talking a minute ago in terms of well we
[830]
were talking about this as far as ebay
[833]
we started to take out some areas of
[835]
consolidation that formed along this
[837]
path
[838]
that we had
[840]
seen to the upside as far as areas of
[841]
value and we've seen some follow-through
[843]
to the downside there as well as you can
[845]
see so again i'd like to see some
[847]
strengths recovery before i get in front
[849]
of this
[850]
momentum to the downside but sam
[852]
again has been a difficult one to
[854]
stomach over the last uh well it looks
[856]
like a year or so at this point from
[858]
1350 on the way down currently 489.
[863]
yeah lucas we'll give you the final
[865]
thought here because
[867]
as you said you could get in but at the
[869]
same time is it that catch the falling
[871]
knife right where you'd rather wait to
[874]
see some momentum to the upside before
[877]
you make these moves tell us more about
[878]
your thoughts
[880]
yes certainly when you think long term
[882]
you know the type of companies you
[884]
really want to be betting on are one you
[886]
know they continue to get big money
[888]
support over multiple year time frames
[891]
growing sales growing revenues when you
[893]
look at sam yeah it's a little bit
[894]
riskier but we do have to you know take
[896]
into context that the uh the truly
[899]
product the brand is about 11 of their
[902]
uh year-to-date sales i believe so we're
[905]
not talking about you know a full you
[907]
know fundamental shift where this
[908]
company is you know going to zero or
[911]
anything like that i just think that
[912]
whenever certain names are not at all
[915]
time highs and people are not cheering
[917]
and raring to go sometimes that could
[919]
look like opportunity and boston beer
[921]
might be you know where you want to dip
[923]
your toes in a little bit
[944]
you
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage