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Sports betting | How a bookmaker make money and how to beat them! - YouTube
Channel: Bet Angel
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so everybody likes a little bit of a
flutter now and again your bet on their
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favorite sporting event especially when
the Grand National comes around
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maybe it's the colors of the jockey
silks maybe it's the name of the horse
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or some special interest story having a
bet on it adds a little bit of an
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interest to that underlying sport but as
we all know bookmakers win in the long
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term and that is because they're looking
for a certain type of customer good
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morning Emily good morning placer in
listening to Peter I have yes I have
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I've been listening but Peter it's Grand
National Day and everybody ain't as
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clever as you out there the mums and
dads be us but the nannies and the wives
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and the children they pick out their
four or five horses and they have their
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50 pence each way it's a fun day Peter
you should be on any day by National Day
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only why have you got
yes but on Grand National Day have it on
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next week coming with you in the studio
we'll have a chat said you wants to be a
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mug or do you want to be amongst the
clever people bookmakers are great at
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getting you to place another bet with
the anticipation of a big win but the
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big question is how do bookmakers make
money from your average punter so I've
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got five coins here these are gonna
represent a betting market basically
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think of it as having five selections
within the market and in order to win a
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bet against the bookmaker we need to
have when we tossing a coin is random so
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you can see here we've got heads tails
heads tails across all of the individual
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coins and everybody knows if we toss a
coin or spin a coin it will land heads
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or tails so what we're gonna do here is
we're gonna say if we get three heads
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then we will win this particular bet but
if we get three tails then the bookmaker
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will win so if we basically go into a
market
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we randomized this a little bit to make
sure it's completely random and then
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throw this out you can see here on this
occasion that bookmaker wins because
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they've got more towns than heads but
what we're trying to do here is just
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randomize a situation but we're also
trying to represent the market as having
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a number of different selections so
we're saying there are five selections
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within a market and we just need to pick
a winning bet out of this maybe we you
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know if you do a strategy that involves
back in more than one runner this is a
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good proxy but basically we're just
trying to simulate a market of some sort
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where there is a winner and a loser and
a certain number of selections within
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that market so on this occasion you can
see it's mainly tails so the bookmaker
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wins and if we repeat this process
enough and over time it will all balance
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out there will be an equal number of
winners and losers we will win sometimes
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the bookmaker will win sometimes but it
basically levels out over a long period
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of time if we whack this into a
spreadsheet and repeat this over many
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many thousands of experiments we will
find that we win 50 percent of the time
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and the bookmaker wins 50 percent of the
time this is what we would call a fair
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market and bookmakers present fair
markets because obviously they have a
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market of maybe five selections and they
offer odds on all of those five
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selections so again you would expect in
a fair market that you would win an
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equal number of times that the bookmaker
wins and therefore everything balances
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out so how do bookmakers make money well
what we're going to do here is I'm going
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to do this again but we're gonna mix
things up and run it over a number of
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experiments so here three heads the
punter wins so it's one nil mr. punter
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on this occasion the punter wins again
so it's to nil mr. Ponte he's on a good
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run maybe he should quit three nil mr.
Ponte is definitely should quit now
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maybe he should increase his stakes and
there you go the bookmakers one because
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there are five tails so no head so it's
three one
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mr. Punto for one mr. Ponte and you're
thinking what is he doing here because
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surely this is gonna a bridge at now in
time three four - four three - mr.
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punter for all mr. punter five four mr.
Fenster five or five six so how how five
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seven so how is what I am I doing here
it's different from what we were doing
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before
five eight so can you see over time the
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love that we do this the bigger that gap
is getting five nine
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510 511 so the punters won five times
the bookmakers won eleven times 5/12 so
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can you see over time the more and more
we encourage the punter to play the
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bigger the margin is for the book mania
this is how bookmakers work but you're
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sort of thinking well hold on a second
here you've got five coins header
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they're completely random and yet the
bookmaker seems to be winning these bets
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more frequently than you could possibly
imagine so why is that well if I turn
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over these coins you'll begin to
understand how that was possible so you
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can see that one of the coins as tails
on both sides and this is more or less
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how a bookmaker that makes money let's
examine this in more detail so now you
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understand how a bookmaker makes money
they make it by creating a false market
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effectively how can you spot as a punter
whether you are actually betting in to
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an unfair market well it's actually
quite simple if you use a betting
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exchange on the top of the screen on the
betting exchange you will see a figure
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represented as a percentage this is what
they call the over round and if the over
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round is low than you're betting into a
fair market but if the over round is
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high then you're betting into an unfair
market so anova round is very similar to
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what we looked at with the coins apart
from the way that you look at an over
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round is quite simple if we look at a
football match for example you have
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three selections within the football
match the home team could win the away
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team could win or the match could end in
a draw one of those three things is
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going to happen and therefore there is a
hundred percent chance of a home win and
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away win and a draw and therefore the
over round should equal 100 percent
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the closer the over round is to 100% the
fairer the market so if you use a
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betting exchange you will find the other
round prominently displayed on the
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screen if it's not there you can
actually switch it on if you've
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accidentally switched it off and that
will allow you to identify markets that
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are fair
or unfair you're looking in a market
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where there can only be one winner for
the over round to be roughly 100 percent
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so where can you find the over round on
a bookmaker or on a sports book well a
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simple answer is you can't they hide it
they do not display the overrun and that
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is because they do not want you to know
that you're betting into an unfair
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market so you have to manually work out
with a bookmaker or a sports book just
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how big that over round is so an
important thing to understand with the
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over round is the more uncertain the
event the bigger the number of
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selections generally the bigger over
round and that is why the Grand National
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is a key target for bookmakers and
sports books every year there are 40
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runners it's a very competitive handicap
race which basically means that nobody
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knows who's going to win so all of that
uncertainty and a very large field size
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leads to very very large overruns in
other words the bookmakers in theory
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have a massive edge against you what we
did was we went and had a look at the
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Grand National to compare how big this
number was and if you actually look at
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the data you'll find that on betting
exchanges the over round was 1% or less
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but on bookmakers the over round ranged
from 26% to 50% so basically the amount
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of margin that was being lost the number
of unfair coins in the game was
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absolutely huge on the grand national
and as a consequence this is why there's
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so much focus on trying to get you to
have a bet on the Grand National simply
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because the bookmakers simply cannot
lose with over ends on that scale so
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let's put this into context by going
back to where we started which was
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looking at those 5 coins we had a market
with 5 sections 5 coins but you could
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only ever possibly win because we were
cheating we were changing the pricing
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within the market on four of those coins
effectively every bet that you made with
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us you were risking that you could lose
and we would keep one of those coins so
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imagine if you keep on doing this
process eventually you will run out of
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money why because you're betting on five
events but you could only ever possibly
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win on four I gained on theory 1/5 of
every bet New York
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place with me so you could actually
place five bets and completely go broke
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with no hope of return and that is
because you're playing in an unfair game
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and the more you bet in an unfair game
than the more money you will lose over
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the long term and that's more or less
how bookmakers make their money so
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bookmakers always win in the long term
or do they because there is a way that
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you can bet that will guarantee you a
win regardless of who goes on to win the
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event that you're betting on that sounds
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