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Lowest Risk Betting Strategy | How to be a Bookmaker and always win! - YouTube
Channel: Bet Angel
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so an age-old expression is only the
bookmaker wins that's the only way that
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you could ever win with betting is by
being the bookmaker so how could you be
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the bookmaker and how does a bookmaker
make money that's what we're gonna talk
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about in this video please like and
comment on the video below that will
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allow me to produce better quality
videos and more of them in the future if
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you're interested in learning to trade
successfully in sports then why not
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visit the bet angel' Academy where we
have more detailed videos so in order to
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be a bookmaker you need to create a
market you need to create a betting
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market and the reason that you would do
that is you're gonna lay odds into that
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market that people will bet against
they're gonna bet against you you create
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the market you create the odds so let's
take a really simple example of creating
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a set of odds and for that what we're
gonna do is use a coin so you know that
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if I toss a coin barring any oddities
the market of the coin rather in this
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case but it is the market that were
going to be talking about will actually
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end up on heads 50% of the time and
tails 50% of the time so we know that
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there's a 50/50 chance that it's going
to end up head or tails so how do we
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price that in a set of odds but what
we're going to do here is we're going to
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use decimal odds because that's how the
exchanges are priced the price that the
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exchanges are priced in decimal odds so
let's do that we know that there's a
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50-50 chance of that coin being a heads
or a tails so if we do 1 divided by 0.5
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the 0.5 represents the 50-50 chance of
being heads or tails what do we get if
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we do that 1 divided by 0.5 equals 2
bingo there you go we have a market we
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can say that the market for heads is 2
and the market for tails is 2 and the
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way to assess how efficient and how good
a market is from a betting perspective
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is to do the opposite
calculation so if you see a market price
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that's - if you do 1/2
then it adds up to 0.5 so if we had a
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market with two runners in it priced at
odds of two on the exchange if we do 1/2
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1/2 and add those two up it equals 1 or
a 100% chance that either of those
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selections is going to on is going to
win this particular market so in the
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case of our coin toss what's actually
going to happen is we have heads priced
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it's 2 and we have tails priced it - and
if we add them both together that equals
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100% and what that tells us is that
there's a 100% chance of the coin being
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heads or tails
so in those terms there's no margin loss
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to either side of the book the backers
can back something with a 100% chance
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and the layer in this case the bookmaker
who's making the market in the book can
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lay into the market at odds of to 100%
he's not making any money either so
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that's a perfect market there's no
margin on either side now if we're a
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bookmaker one of the things that we're
going to do is we want to make money
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from the backers so you are the backer
so if we were looking at our coin toss
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market if I go into the market and offer
you odds of two on a heads or two on a
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tail then basically I'm never going to
make any money
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because over the very very long term we
would expect heads and tails to equal
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out and I'm going to pay out a hundred
percent of my money for a hundred
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percent probability so in fact there's
no advantage in me doing that however I
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could say to you okay you know we've had
five heads in a row therefore the chance
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of a head is going to occur more
frequently on the next toss I could
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convince you that that is the case
that's complete rubbish but I could
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convince you that that is the case and
now form only gonna offer you odds of
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1.5 what happens if I offer you ads of
1.5 what am I actually offering you when
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I'm offering odds of 1.5 well if we go
and do that little bit of maths again we
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do 1 divided by 1.5 it comes out as zero
point six six six six six six six six
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six recurring in other words what I'm
saying more or less is that it's got a
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67%
occurring now that's nonsense because a
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coin has a 50% chance of being a heads
or a tails so if I a few odds of 1.5
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there's absolutely no reason that you
would choose to take those odds because
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I'm offering you
odds of 66% chance of something
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occurring when it's only got a 50%
chance it makes no sense it makes
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absolutely no sense whatsoever but
people do this all of the time in
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betting markets people will back
something despite the fact that the odds
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just don't stack up so when you're
backing in a market you want to get the
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highest odds that you possibly can and
when you're laying you want to get the
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lowest possible odds to lay out because
doing either of those two things is how
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you make money in the long term on a
betting market if we went into a market
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we could back heads or tails at 1.5 we
would lose money hand-over-fist stew the
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person that's pricing that market
however if we go into the market and
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back heads or tails at odds of 3 then we
could effectively buy the chance of the
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coin being heads or tails for a 66%
chance giving us 30 odd percent margin
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if we back it at odds of 1.5 the margin
goes in the other direction it's
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actually the layer that has the margin
within that particular market so when
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you look at a market and you see the
odds that's effectively telling you the
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chance that something is likely to occur
the layers want you to take the lowest
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odds possible but as a backer you want
to be able to take the highest odds
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possible so let me show you a practical
example of this and if you go into bet
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angel fire up the bookmaking tab and
I've chosen a market here at the weekend
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Newcastle free Huddersfield you can see
the market is super efficient here
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it's priced at 100 point 1 that means if
you're backing into this market you're
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only losing 0.1% to the other side of
the book traditionally a bookmaker but
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in this market the layers on the other
side of the market you can see it's
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super super efficient there's almost no
edge to a layer in this particular
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market at these particular odds so if I
was a bookmaker that would obviously be
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completely unacceptable to me and the
best way of creating margin is to change
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the pricing so if I go over to the
manual area here I can actually reduce
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the
on each one of these and you can see the
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book percentage starts to rise so that's
how I would make margin on this
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particular game so what I did was I
nipped out quickly and went to my local
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bookmaker to find out what odds they
were offering within this particular
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market and according to the odds that I
picked up on the coupon they were
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offering four to five on Newcastle which
is decimal odds of 1.8 on the draw they
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were offering 12 to 5 which is decimal
odds of three point four zero and on
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Huddersfield they were offering 13 to
five which is decimal odds of three
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point six so can you see their slight
difference between the margin that you
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lose at the bookmaker and the amount
that you lose on the exchange you can
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see here that if you bet on the exchange
you almost lose nothing to the other
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side of the book because you've got a
very competitive market but if we went
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into our local bookmaker
and placed a bet there you can see that
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they're asking for nearly thirteen
percent margin on this particular game
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now they are actually given credit they
are fairly competitive on Newcastle so
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it's not a ridiculous proposition on
Newcastle you suspect because you think
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that probably the exchange is full of
smart money and they probably have that
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price right but it's undoubted that
these prices will change as we head into
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the weekend and the market adjusts for
new information but you can see they're
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pretty uncompetitive on the remaining
selections and very uncompetitive when
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we go for the away win so there's
absolutely no way that you would back an
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away win here but maybe you would be
able to get a decent price of the
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bookmaker if you were backing just
Newcastle so yeah anyway there's a
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practical example of what a book looks
like on an exchange and how a bookmaker
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prices their margin into the market
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you
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