馃攳
LONG TERM INVESTING IS USELESS | IN LONG TERM WE ALL WILL BE DEAD | REAL TRUTH BEHIND LONG TERM | - YouTube
Channel: Invest Aaj For Kal
[0]
I am a long term investor.
[2]
But if we talk truth about long term,
[4]
then neither you will be there nor me.
[7]
In long term, all of us will be dead.
[9]
Today, there are so many new investors in the market,
[11]
who call themselves a follower of Warren Buffet.
[14]
And, call themselves a long term investor.
[16]
The fun fact is, these so-called long term investors,
[19]
haven't even completed 10 years in the market.
[21]
Still, they are ready to fight with the market.
[24]
Still at every point in the market,
[26]
they are always ready to invest 100% of their capital.
[33]
These long term investors,
[34]
won't face any problems in staying long term,
[36]
provided any one of the 2 condition gets satisfied.
[39]
What are the conditions?
[40]
Let's try to understand.
[41]
First condition is,
[43]
whatever the corrections coming in the market,
[45]
gets finish within 1 year.
[48]
Or, the correction which is coming in the market
[50]
or which has to come,
[51]
that should not be more than 30%.
[53]
Till then, they will be able to remain as a long term investor.
[55]
But, if both of the above conditions does not satisfy,
[58]
that means the correction that comes in the market,
[60]
comes with more than 1 year and with more than 30%.
[65]
Majority of these long term investors,
[67]
will not even last as a investor.
[69]
Trust me on this.
[70]
And, if we talk about the market,
[72]
then it will not be always kind that
[74]
a small correction or correction come for the small time.
[78]
When a long term correction comes,
[81]
these long term investors take no time in running from the market.
[85]
This we have to understand.
[87]
Today's video will going to be your fourth video,
[89]
of General Market Series.
[91]
A separate playlist of the first 3 videos has come,
[93]
you will get the link for the same, here on the i-button.
[95]
This will be going to be one of the most important series for you.
[98]
If you are wrong about the general market trend,
[101]
majority of your investment decisions will be going to be wrong.
[103]
Be it any strategy or any personality that you follow.
[107]
My name is Anant Ladha, CFA CA CEP LL.B.
[110]
The telegram link for "Open for all" is in the description.
[113]
Or you can directly go to the telegram and
[115]
search " Invest Aaj For Kal",
[116]
then you will get this open for all telegram channel.
[118]
More than 1 lakh members have already become a part of this.
[121]
Beware from the Fraud channels.
[123]
So let's start today's very important discussion.
[126]
[Intro Music]
[133]
According to my personal experience,
[135]
Such investor who says to himself that I never take stop-loss,
[139]
I buy and hold, irrespective of the signals given by the market
[142]
that the correction is coming.
[143]
Still, I don't take risks to take small stop loss
[146]
at the time of correction and get my path clear from the market.
[148]
I keep on fighting with the market.
[150]
Whenever the correction slightly increases in the equity market,
[154]
then these investors start losing their patience.
[156]
And, more pressure starts coming to them.
[158]
And, these are those investors,
[160]
which at the bottom of the market,
[162]
that is when nifty comes at 7500,
[165]
at that time, they sell their products and get out form the market.
[168]
And from there, the market does V-shape recovery because
[170]
they kept on fighting in the whole bear market and stick to it,
[174]
when actually there is a time for investing in the market.
[178]
At that time, their patience becomes almost zero and,
[180]
tension and pressure on them become very high.
[183]
With this, knowledge about the market's direction is also important
[187]
because whenever a stock breaks,
[188]
it gets broken easily but to grow, it has to grow very high.
[192]
Let's understand this with an example.
[194]
Suppose there is a stock of Rs 100,
[195]
and the correction in that comes out to be 20%,
[197]
and that stock become of Rs 80.
[198]
Now, in order for that stock to reach again
[200]
from 80 Rs to 100 Rs,
[202]
that means, in order to reach to its own cost,
[205]
it has to increase by 25%.
[207]
A correction was only 20%, but it has to grow up to 25%.
[210]
In the same way, suppose the correction of 33% comes in the market.
[213]
A stock of value 100 Rs comes down at 66 Rs.
[216]
In order to reach again from 66 Rs to 100 Rs,
[219]
it has to grow 50%, although correction was 33%.
[223]
And, if we ever get a correction of 50%,
[225]
then in order to grow, we have to become double.
[227]
A stock of Rs 100, after the correction of 50% comes at Rs 50.
[231]
Now, in order to go back again from Rs 50 to Rs 100,
[233]
it has to become double.
[234]
It is very important for you to understand this theory.
[236]
That's why we should never fight with the market.
[239]
And the fun part is that here, we are talking about growing,
[243]
that means your stock will grow after reaching Rs 50 or Rs 66
[246]
or it will grow after reaching at Rs 80.
[247]
There will be many stocks,
[249]
which will not even grow after one bear market
[252]
and, you will just keep them on hold.
[254]
That's why, according to me,
[255]
the strategy of buy and hold in direct share equity investing,
[258]
is totally wrong.
[259]
And, if you want to buy and hold,
[261]
then do in mutual funds because it is a basket of a portfolio,
[264]
on which we already have brought the complete series.
[266]
If you have any doubts regarding mutual funds,
[268]
then you will get the mutual fund series
[270]
on your Invest Aaj For Kal Channel.
[272]
You can go and checkout that.
[273]
There, a strategy of buy and hold works very well because
[277]
there, we do not work on single stock,
[279]
but rather we work on a basket and,
[281]
it become almost certain to bounce the basket.
[284]
But, whenever I talk about direct equity share investing,
[287]
preserving the capital in the direct equity share
[290]
becomes as important as making profit.
[292]
More the capital you preserved, more the profit you earned.
[296]
Count your capital preserve in your profit
[299]
if you are investing in direct equity share and,
[302]
if you want to earn money from direct equity share in the long run.
[306]
That's why you do not have to fight from the whole market.
[309]
Do not fight with general market trends of the market,
[312]
If you haven't watched the first 2 videos of general market trends,
[316]
pause this video here itself.
[318]
First, watch those 2 videos and then continue with this video.
[321]
The enjoyment and knowledge,
[323]
you will get in the content, will get increased.
[325]
And, mark my words,
[326]
this series is going to be the most important series of your life.
[329]
You are getting this series for free.
[330]
You will never get this in even paid.
[332]
First go and checkout those 2 videos.
[334]
Then, continue with this video.
[336]
I hope, you have watched the first 2 videos.
[339]
Let's continue this video from here
[341]
and try to understand some things.
[343]
You learned that
[344]
it can be difficult for you to exit the bear market in the starting
[347]
but, if you did the exit,
[349]
then you are out from the complete correction of the market.
[352]
You are out from the market's complete first ratio.
[355]
When the entry point will come into the market?
[356]
When to do the entry?
[357]
That too, we will tell you in this series.
[359]
And at that time, you will have the courage to do the entry.
[362]
Otherwise, if you continued to be a part of complete frustration,
[365]
then you will not able to do the entry when the time will come.
[367]
Other than that, the market is being correct is a different thing,
[370]
if you followed the strategy of buy and hold,
[372]
the share you have kept after buying,
[375]
might be the winner today,
[375]
but what will happen in the future,
[377]
neither you know nor me.
[379]
Nowadays, you all know the present condition of blue-chip shares.
[382]
But, still, what is their actual condition?
[384]
I will try to tell you.
[386]
And, try to feel this video once because,
[389]
now, from here,
[390]
I am going to give you so many examples of old blue chips.
[392]
There were some blue-chip shares of every market time.
[397]
From those, many names you haven't even heard,
[399]
but, if you ask those names from your father,
[400]
he also will not remember majority of names.
[402]
Let's cover blue-chip shares of the bear market one by one.
[407]
Firstly, let's talk about those buy and hold investors.
[410]
They bought some blue-chip shares which were from 1986,
[414]
Let's try to understand the names of those blue-chip shares.
[417]
What happened to those blue-chip shares today?
[419]
That too, we will understand.
[421]
The first name comes of Surya Group.
[422]
The way you consider Reliance today,
[424]
Consider Surya group in the same way of 1986.
[428]
Other than this, the Leasing Company got very famous in 1986.
[431]
Mazda Leasing, Apple Leasing, Pioneer Leasing
[434]
Where these blue chip companies have gone?
[437]
Neither you know nor we.
[439]
In 1986, it was understandable that
[441]
buy a Bombay Dying, there is no bigger gold than that.
[445]
The price of that time has not even come today.
[447]
If we talk about some other blue-chip shares of 1986,
[450]
S&S Power Switchgears.
[452]
Such switchgear company where everyone used to think that
[455]
no one will even touch this for next 25 years.
[457]
Today, nobody even know this.
[458]
Hindustan Industrial Chemicals, Dhatu Forge,
[461]
if I will go on taking their names,
[463]
Then the list will never end.
[464]
All these are 1986 blue chip companies,
[466]
to which, no investor had a problem in buy and hold,
[469]
and today, there are no signs of them.
[471]
Now, let's move a bit forward.
[472]
Let's talk about the time of Harshad Mehta.
[474]
In 1992, there were some blue chip companies
[477]
which were told that if you have bought them,
[480]
then forget, it is a gold.
[482]
The first company blue chip company of 1992 was
[485]
ACC, Apollo Tyres, BPL, Sterlite, Videocon,
[489]
Just keep on taking the names.
[491]
Today, all these have become a garbage companies.
[493]
If I add some more names,
[495]
then Vishaka Aqua, Mansarovar,
[497]
the names will never end.
[499]
The list will keep on going and we have a limited time.
[501]
Now, let's move on.
[503]
Now, let's move on to the blue-chip companies of 2000.
[505]
In the year 2000, what blue-chip companies were there?
[507]
Try to understand this carefully.
[508]
Back in that time,
[510]
if someone had applied the strategy of buy and hold in 2000,
[512]
and, any share from these,
[513]
here I am only taking names of some limited shares,
[516]
If we talk about the shares from 1993 to 1996,
[519]
so many IPOs came which had no limit.
[521]
The maximum number of IPOs,
[523]
in Indian Equity Share market came between 1993 to 1996.
[526]
85% Companies from that time don't even exist today.
[529]
You can think that
[531]
if a invester invested in any IPO company of that time,
[534]
85% are the chances that
[535]
the money which was invested has become zero today.
[538]
Now, the time comes of the year 2000.
[540]
In 2000, Ketan Parikh's K20 shares came.
[543]
Such shares which you forget after buying,
[546]
its almost compulsory for your money to become zero.
[548]
But, in those times that is in 2000,
[550]
if you go and ask your father,
[552]
every single individual used to run behind these companies.
[555]
If I name some companies,
[557]
Satyam Computers, whose name has totally gone.
[560]
Sterlite, Himachal Futuristic,
[562]
Friends, the list will not end and
[564]
you all will start feeling the pain.
[566]
Penta Media, Global Tele, Tips,
[569]
You keep on taking the names,
[570]
all these were used to be a blue chip companies,
[572]
and today, nobody asks for them.
[573]
Now, let's move on to the recent that is in the 2008 crash.
[577]
Let's try to buy and hold on to the companies of that time.
[580]
Unitech, R COM, Reliance Capital.
[582]
Are you considering Reliance Capital a small company?
[585]
No blue chip company was bigger than this at that time.
[588]
The market capitalization was around Rs 1,60,000 Crore.
[591]
And today, no one ask about that.
[593]
Aban Offshore, market capitalization of Rs 18,000 Crore,
[596]
Suzlon,
[597]
which used to said the next future company of wind power in India
[600]
Such company,
[601]
which had a market capitalization of Rs 66,000 Crore.
[604]
Punjab Lloyd, Used to be called the next L&T company of India,
[607]
Who remembers this company today?
[609]
I am very sure that
[610]
if any company from these were buy and hold,
[613]
then no one is asking about them.
[615]
You must be understanding this.
[616]
And, if we talk about the latest crash,
[617]
that is of 2020, the Corona Virus crash.
[620]
This was the smallest crash of all time.
[622]
There is no need to talk about this.
[624]
Every time, such a small crash will come and go from the equity market,
[627]
this will also not gonna happen.
[628]
It is important for you and us to understand this.
[630]
Many of you investors would say this to me,
[633]
Anant! we are not doing share-buy,
[635]
we still are a long term investor.
[637]
We will still follow the strategy of buy and hold.
[640]
We still are a follower of Warren Buffet.
[642]
And, they will use the Business word instead of share,
[645]
and will try to console themselves.
[646]
Before I answer to them,
[648]
If you still not having a Demat account,
[650]
then you will get the links for opening the Demat Account
[651]
and the process of joining the private channel in the description.
[653]
If you want any help from our team regarding Mutual Funds,
[656]
then you will get the links and the numbers in the description.
[658]
Now, these so called long term investors,
[660]
who are using Business word instead of Shares,
[662]
for them, there is a simple example of Infosys,
[665]
In 2000, the company like Infosys, which gave the earning growth
[669]
of more than 25% in a 5 year window,
[672]
Still, share got broke upto 85%
[674]
How will you justify a correction of 85%?
[677]
and how will you keep that much patience even after seeing that
[680]
your company is making profit quarterly and yearly.
[684]
So, it is important for us to understand that
[686]
we don't have to fight the market.
[687]
Market is Supreme.
[689]
If general market trend is saying that
[691]
get out from the market,
[692]
then I will prefer to get out in direct equity share investing.
[696]
I will at least not prefer to fight the market.
[698]
You may have a different stand.
[700]
The final question will be,
[702]
Anant, if this is a reality of buy and hold and strategy,
[704]
which many investors, advisors and professionals already know,
[708]
Still,
[709]
why do so many so-called investors tell us to follow buy and hold?
[713]
Buy and forget for 10 years, definitely, you will make money.
[716]
Why do they say that?
[717]
It is a psychological point.
[718]
Try to understand this.
[719]
Let's suppose, there is an investment advisor or expert.
[722]
How much easy for him to advise his investors,
[724]
Axis bank looks good in long term.
[727]
Kotak Bank looks good in a long term.
[728]
Sir, if it falls, then no problem.
[730]
Definitely, it will make money in 10 years.
[731]
Hindustan unilever, looks good in a long term.
[733]
Dixon, looks good in a long term.
[735]
Suppose that you and we are lying.
[737]
You ask me about my personal opinion of any share,
[739]
and, I tell you, it looks good in the long term.
[741]
And, to other 10 people,
[742]
I tell that these 5 will make money in 1-2 years.
[744]
I am always safe.
[745]
Try to understand this point.
[747]
For a long time, most of today's blue-chip shares,
[750]
will only be remain as a cow chip,
[752]
whose value will 100% will get eroded.
[755]
If we talk about long term investing,
[756]
then neither you will live in a long term nor me.
[759]
Neither you will remember which so-called investor,
[761]
made you buy that share,
[763]
neither I will remember which share I advised the investors.
[768]
That means if we talk about long term investing,
[770]
then it is very easy for the advisor in saying that
[773]
Sir, it is a long term investing.
[774]
We will talk after 10 years.
[774]
And after 10 years,
[775]
most of the shares will become zero,
[777]
and you will not even remember that
[779]
who suggested you buy that share.
[780]
Final decisions will be yours only.
[781]
Always, My strict opinion is if we have to do long term investing,
[785]
then we should do it through Mutual Funds because
[787]
a basket is always there,
[788]
which is managed by a Fund Manager,
[791]
who will timely keep on changing the stocks for you.
[794]
If he will fear about a stock,
[796]
then he he will get the exit from there.
[797]
Otherwise,
[798]
if you followed long term investing in direct equity share,
[802]
you followed a buy and hold strategy,
[804]
long term is also a long term for me,
[805]
but for me personally,
[806]
it is a long term from 6 months to 1 year
[808]
So that, I personally know that what am I doing.
[811]
And, you also know, what you are doing.
[813]
Long term investing for me,
[815]
in direct equity share market,
[816]
is only 6 months to 1 year.
[818]
You have to understand that
[819]
what is your long term time?
[821]
It is very easy for an expert to say
[822]
this I have told for long term
[823]
Sir, for 25 years, I have told you this.
[825]
Why you are watching this in 2 years?
[826]
Now, who will remember a thing after 25 years,
[829]
rest you are intelligent enough to understand.
[831]
If you find this video different and interesting,
[833]
then do not go without liking it.
[835]
If you did not subscribe to the channel and press the bell icon,
[836]
then that important video will be missed.
[838]
Share it with at least 5 friends.
[840]
If you did not share it with even 5 friends,
[842]
then our motive of telling this complete series
[844]
and making you aware of general market trends,
[847]
of giving you such a powerful tool,
[850]
which will be helpful to your life long,
[852]
And, no one will tell you all this truth
[853]
after taking the money too,
[854]
because their personal interest comes there.
[856]
Do not forget to share this with at least 5 friends.
[859]
Happy Investing and I will see you very soon.
[861]
For opening a Demat account,
[862]
you will get the links in the description.
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage