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Is The Cruise Industry Doomed ? (CCL Stock Analysis) - YouTube
Channel: Nathanael Callon
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imagine being the captain of a ship with
thousands of passengers on board and
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hundreds of those who are sick and need
life-saving attention and you are denied
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access to ports across the globe because
of a global pandemic what do you do what
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if you are one of those passengers how
would you feel would you ever get on a
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ship again we're gonna get into that and
more because this is a real scenario and
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we're gonna talk about it today so let's
get started what's going on guys
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Nathanael here yes we're talking about
some Cruise Line companies today and how
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they are being affected by this COVID-19 outbreak we're not gonna really talk
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about whether you should buy or short
these stocks but instead we're just
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gonna get into what is going on with
them right now and what that means for
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the cruise and tourism industry in the
future so if you've been following the
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news at all the cruise ship from Holland
America the Zaandam is currently trying
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to find a place to port their ship
because they have thousands of people
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onboard and hundreds of them are sick
with flu-like symptoms and they have
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even had casualties on board but because
of the current pandemic they are unable
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to port anywhere in the United States
and they have also been pushed away by
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other countries because of the lack of
resources available on land and this is
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going to turn into quite a PR nightmare
for the cruise industry because they
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have just taken one beating after
another throughout this time whether
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it's the Zaandam or the Diamond Princess
off the coast of California there is
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nothing worse than being stuck in a ship
with thousands of others people where a
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virus or any other kind of sickness
really can spread very easily and
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is causing some very serious
repercussions for these companies and
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this is causing quite an issue for three
Cruise Lines in particular all based in
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the United States they are Carnival
Cruise Lines Norwegian Cruise Lines and
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Royal Caribbean all of these companies
are headquartered in the United States
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and they are suffering from a very
serious lack of support due to the way
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that they conduct their businesses and
we're gonna get into that but first go
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ahead and subscribe to the channel I
post three times a week about personal
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finance investing and credit cards
basically what I'm trying to do here is
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to inform you as my community about
these companies and because they are
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publicly traded stocks they are
available for anyone to invest in and so
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I'm just gonna weigh some of the pros
and cons of what is going on right now
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with these companies and whether you
should think about putting your money
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into the cruise industry now because
you're watching this on YouTube and I am
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NOT a personal finance guru or a
stockbroker take it with a grain of salt
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this is mainly what I have been
researching about these companies and
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I'm just trying to share it with you so
you are able to make informed decisions
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if you are planning to invest in some of
these companies now as I said before
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these companies are all headquartered
here in the United States but they were
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specifically excluded from the two
trillion dollar economic stimulus bill
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because of the way that they run their
businesses essentially they flagged
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their ships in other countries to avoid
paying the US tax rate and some of these
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countries include Panama the Bahamas
Liberia among others and what they're
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doing is they are paying less money to
operate from these countries than if
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they would operate in the United States
so the wording of this stimulus bill
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specifically excluded companies that are
based in the United States but do not do
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the majority of their business in the
United States and
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hit these cruise companies very very
hard another issue as with the Zaandam
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because they are flagged in another
country the US government is saying that
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they do not have the responsibility to
cover down on providing medical care and
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services to these people so the Zaandam
in particular tried to dock in New York
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in New York as you know is the epicenter
of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
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States and they were turned away and a
lot of ports in Miami Fort Lauderdale
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places like that have also closed their
ports to foreign vessels because of the
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lack of capacity that they have to help
people so what do you do when the
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federal government is unable to support
you and your profits are going to run
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dry well Carnival Cruise Lines has
secured credit for at least the near
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term as well as cutting off all
dividends and stock buybacks to help
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keep their company afloat now I
personally see a lot of issues with the
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cruise lines in the long-term future
because of what I was saying before with
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the PR aspect of it sickness does run
rampant through a ship it's not the
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first time that a sickness has spread
through a ship basically you have a very
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dense small city on a single vessel
afloat in the ocean and because people
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are so close together there is a
increased chance of spreading an
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infection or a virus or something along
those lines there have been issues of
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cholera outbreaks in the past and
because of the issue that the Zaandam
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and other cruise ships are having with
finding help at ports around the globe
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there are going to be a lot of bad press
and like a negative stigma surrounding
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these companies and that may actually
turn people off to take it a cruise in
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the future not to mention all the people
who are on that ship right now
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what are the odds that they are going to
take another cruise after this
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experience and what happens when you get
off of that ship and you go home and
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you're finally able to reunite with your
family you're gonna tell them that it
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was your worst experience ever and
you're probably going to scare your
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family and all your friends from ever
taking a cruise again so there is going
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to be a very negative perception
surrounding these companies for a
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considerable time now don't get me wrong
the idea of a cruise is great
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all-inclusive tons of fun and games and
pools and just a great experience all in
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one place for usually a very competitive
price something that you would not find
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at a resort on land so I can see the
appeal of a cruise ship but after all
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that's going on I don't think that
perception is going to remain the same
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all right guys so I am on Webull right
now if you don't have a Webull account I
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have a link in the description below
when you sign up using that link you
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will get two free stocks one when your
account is successfully created and
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another when you make your first deposit
it is a very user friendly program and I
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am going to show you just what it looks
like by going in here and looking at
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these stocks all right so the first
stock we are going to look at is
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Carnival Cruise Lines CCL on the New
York Stock Exchange as of today pre
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market it is looking at 8 dollars and 80
cents a share and I'm going to show you
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just what kind of beating it has taken
over the last three months so starting
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back in January Carnival was trading at
fifty one dollars and thirty one cents a
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share and as of today April second it is
trading at eight dollars and 80 cents
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that is at eighty two point six nine
percent decrease in stock value and
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honestly I
think things may get worse from here now
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as we keep looking let's go to the
five-year value of it you can see that
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really over the last five years it has
maintained a fairly good inconsistent
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value but because of this outbreak and
because of the lack of cruises that are
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going to be happening in the near term
that is just going to continue to beat
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down this stock and honestly I would not
be surprised to see it drop to about
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five or six dollars a share before
things start kind of evening out it has
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really really taken a beating and I
don't know if this is the right time to
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get in I will leave that up to you but
will it rebound eventually it will I
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think analysts are currently saying that
this stock is a hold so what that means
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to you is if you already own this stock
then hold on to it because you're going
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to basically lose all of your investment
if you were to cash out now but with
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that being said it may be a good time to
buy do your research on it and let me
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know what you think in the comments
honestly this is this is kind of
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unprecedented for this industry at least
since I can remember and for such a
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steep drop-off it's really going to hurt
and it's going to take them a long time
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to catch up from this our next stock is
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and this
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one is currently trading at 9 dollars
and 55 cents as of the 2nd of April and
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we are going to look at that same
three-month period and you can just see
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what has happened to this stock in that
time period in January it was trading at
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$58 and 83 cents and it is currently
sitting at 955 which is
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in eighty three point six five percent
decrease in value which is just a
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staggering staggering change in this
stock and like I said with Carnival
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there is really something unprecedented
about this over the last five years this
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stock has performed marginally the same
across across the board it does offer
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dividends so that is one of the things
that helps keep that stock price at a
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consistent level because shareholders
are getting a payout from the profits
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that these companies make analysts also
currently have this stock as a buy so
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with that being said be on the lookout
for this do some more research make sure
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that you are making informed decisions
when it comes to investing I want to
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make sure that you guys are making a
profit and not losing money in the
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process and that's the ultimate goal is
to make money to grow your wealth and
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you know there may be an opportunity
with these but really time will tell as
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to what this stock does in the short
term and the final stock we're going to
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look at today is Royal Caribbean cruise
lines traded as RCL on the New York
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Stock Exchange it is currently trading
at twenty five seventy seven pre market
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on to April and we're gonna look at that
three-month period it started off
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January at one hundred and thirty four
dollars and sixty five cents and it is
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currently trading at twenty five seventy
seven which is an eighty point seven
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percent decrease in stock value so all
of these companies have taken at least
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an 80 percent hit in share price since
this whole COVID-19 has really
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gripped the world and taken a toll on a
lot of industries but the tourism and
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cruise industries are going to be hit
very hard in the needs
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and really as this goes on into summer
and when people are looking to take
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vacations if they're unable to use a lot
of these staples that people usually
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rely on to get away then you're going to
see this value continue to plummet and
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honestly it's it's sad to see because I
know it does provide a good source of
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entertainment and just time to get away
with friends and family but at the going
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rate I don't think the cruise lines are
going to be operating at least until
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maybe fall there's no way that they're
going to be backing up and running
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normal operations by summertime and
summer times going to hit them really
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hard as well so do some more research on
them I know I sound like a broken record
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but I am by no means license to be
giving this advice but I do a lot of my
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own research on stocks that I'm
interested in and this one was too hard
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to pass up I just wanted to get into
what is affecting them right now there's
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a lot of political and economic issues
that are really really taken a toll on
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this industry and because of that they
are looking more and more enticing to
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investors but at what point do you say
yes I'm going to buy or is there a real
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issue with the future of these companies
people need good outlets to take their
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families out on a vacation and the
cruise industry has really done that for
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a lot of families like I said I'd be
interested in doing it definitely no
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time in the near future will I be doing
it but with that being said you know I
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think they will bounce back eventually
they do have the finances secured to at
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least weather the storm in the short
term and as they look to the countries
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that they are flagged in they may be
able to get some kind of stimulus
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economically for operating out of those
countries time will tell I know that
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them not
receiving any of that to trillion-dollar
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economic stimulus that the US government
passed is going to hurt them but you
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know if you're not paying taxes in the
US then is there really an incentive for
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the u.s. to try to bail you out and the
answer is no so you may see actually a
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shift in their operations in the future
you know when something like this
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happens you kind of figure out where
your alliances lie and you know the US
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government has been pretty good about
bailing companies out in the last 12 13
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years and so you may you may see a shift
in where they decide to operate their
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crews and their vessels from all right
so that's all I have for you today these
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are just my two cents on the cruise
industry all three of these companies
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are considerably down since the start of
the year and this is really I think
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going to continue into the summer and
maybe even much longer because of this
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outbreak as well as that stigma
surrounding cruise ships and honestly do
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your own research and see what you think
when it comes to investing in these
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companies I am NOT certain on when the
right time to pick these up are if you
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are going to invest in some of these but
just know that there's a risk and things
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may get worse before they get better
all right guys so that's all I have for
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you thank you for tuning in please like
and subscribe if you have not already I
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will catch you in the next video bye-bye
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