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Mid 2022 Crypto Predictions & Chart Analysis With Our Bot Buddies Inside The Plan by Dan Hollings - YouTube
Channel: Roaming Income Girls
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Hello everybody. I can't see you now because聽
I'm sharing the screen. So Nat or whomever can聽聽
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see everyone's faces there, if you see anyone聽
putting up their hand or whatever, let me know.
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But I thought I would start the session today聽
with what I've learned in the last week or two.聽聽
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Who wants to look at some charts?
Me, I love charts.聽聽
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<Laugh>.
Cool, charts are great. Yay. Amazing, great.
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Sweet, alright. So does everyone remember the聽
"Stock to Flow" chart by Plan B that Dan always聽聽
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showcases and talks about? I haven't actually聽
got an image of it here, but I could pull it up聽聽
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if you need to see it again. But basically it's聽
the prediction thing of where Bitcoin's going.聽聽
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And of course everyone always talks about Bitcoin聽
because that's the one with the longevity and,聽聽
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you know, really to a degree, everything聽
kind of moves along with it to a degree.
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So what we actually got from, and maybe you've聽
seen this chart if anyone's been watching聽聽
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Guy from Coin Bureau, we actually took聽
a screenshot from his video of this.聽聽
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So what he's basically saying, there's been聽
a lot of, kind of talk around, you know,聽聽
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the industry or the marketplace of Plan B's聽
"Stock to Flow" model is a bit off basically.
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Because what's been happening in this current聽
period of just mass hysteria type of selling,聽聽
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type of thing. And it's, it's not just from聽
macro events. I mean, obviously that makes a big聽聽
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difference, you know, wars and inflations and just聽
never ending co-vid, and all this type of stuff.聽聽
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But what the video that Guy from Coin Bureau聽
had said was that Jurian Timmer from Fidelity聽聽
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Finances, I think it called, basically said,聽
look the Stock to Flow chart from Plan B was,聽聽
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was really good in the sense of supply.
So mathematically doing the equation to say,聽聽
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by the time the last Bitcoin is mined in 2140 you聽
know, to work it backwards type of thing, from a聽聽
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supply standpoint, it was definitely spot on, but聽
he hadn't really taken into account demand.
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So he recreated a chart here. And if I need聽
to blow it up, let me see if I can do that. So聽聽
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what this guy from, Jurian Timmer did, he said,聽
well, what have we got to kind of go off to work聽聽
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out demand because demand is still going to be聽
relative to FOMO and to, you know, big macro聽聽
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trends, and all this kind of stuff. So the green聽
line that you see here is actually the adoption or聽聽
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the demand that the internet took, and the orange聽
line is the demand that the mobile phones took.
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And it's great that Jenny's here as well, because聽
we had a bit of a conversation the other day,聽聽
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and I'm going to do a proper formal interview with聽
Jenny about this. Just based off her experience聽聽
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in corporate during both of these periods聽
of adoption. So what Durian Timmer said was,聽聽
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well, if we can't really just focus on the聽
adoption of the internet and we can't really聽聽
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just focus on the adoption of mobile phone,聽
because we don't know where we're at with crypto,聽聽
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but what if we did kind of a halfway point or did聽
a medium of the two? So that's the purple line.
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So the next couple of charts that I'm going聽
to show will be showing the events that happen聽聽
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with this four year halving all the time. But聽
what it really comes down to at the moment is聽聽
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from where the chart's at now, we're definitely聽
sort of peeking down below things like the聽聽
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200 month average.
There's just a lot of stuff happening, but聽聽
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what I actually determined from another analysis聽
is that the bottom of the market is not far off.聽聽
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And then we actually can, you know, get a little聽
bit of a prediction on when the next bottom of聽聽
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the market will be again, using Bitcoin as that聽
sort of, you know, playground type of thing.
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So at the end of the day, if we look at this聽
point in time down here, and I probably need to聽聽
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like do something with putting a ruler in here,聽
but to go down here to 2024 where this first peak聽聽
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jumps up here, that is when the Bitcoin Halving聽
is due. So the Bitcoin Halving and, you know,聽聽
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based on history, there's always a big increase聽
in the value of Bitcoin because the supply聽聽
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gets less. So the prediction by, you know,聽
between 2024 up to 2025 before it starts sort of,聽聽
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you know, evening out again, probably until the聽
next Bitcoin having in 2028 could be the medium聽聽
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price of a Bitcoin being around $300,000.
If it follows the mobile phone adoption trend,聽聽
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it could be up near $600,000, but this is quite聽
different to what that Stock to Flow chart showed.聽聽
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I think during this period, the Stock to Flow聽
chart was showing around a million dollars.聽聽
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Wasn't it Nat?
It does.
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That on that other chart, but I need to聽
probably pull it up and show that as well.
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Yeah. It rises to a million at 2025.
Yeah. And so what this guy was saying was聽聽
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from a supply standpoint, yep that's fine,聽
but you've really got to factor in humans聽聽
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and the demand model as well. Like, you know,聽
there's so much... What's that graph that they do,聽聽
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the greed and fear graph at the moment...
The Greed and Fear Index.
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It's literally at the lowest that it's聽
been... Everybody's just super fearful聽聽
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of crypto at the moment. So there's all these聽
different things to take into an account.
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So getting to understand some of these charts,聽
don't look at the numbers on the right, they're聽聽
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actually percentages, but what it comes down to is聽
these big blue lines are the Bitcoin Halvings.
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So November 2012, July 2016, May 2020,聽
and then April 2024 is what's expected.聽聽
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It may be a bit after, it's a little bit fluid on聽
that, but at this point in time, it's expected for聽聽
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April 2024 for the next Bitcoin Halving.
So looking at how the market drops聽聽
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in a period before the increase is sort of聽
showing this, you know, pattern. So between 2012聽聽
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and 2016, there was 547 days where it sort of went聽
a bit sidewards then started increasing. Bitcoin聽聽
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halving happened and the price went up, Then in聽
2020, it was a 486 day period from the bottom of聽聽
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its market, which was the 2018 bear market or the聽
crypto winter as they called it. It went up again,聽聽
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came down a little bit, Bitcoin Halving聽
happened, and then we shot up.
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So here, we are now coming down here. And聽
this particular analyst who did this chart聽聽
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said, we are somewhere between August and聽
September of being in the bottom of our market聽聽
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before we'll start to see the rise again,聽
or at least maybe just some sideways.聽聽
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So there's a good chance for the rest of this聽
year it's a good time to buy your Bitcoin,聽聽
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Ethereum, or whatever coins you're liking.
But this sidewards market is where our bots聽聽
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make heaps of money because the sidewards聽
wiggle on a bot is always awesome.
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Next chart is looking again, it's sort of聽
coming in close, just doing a different聽聽
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analysis based off the 200 months...,
Sorry Jodie, before, before you go on, does聽聽
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that take into account the present聽
environment because we've never had聽聽
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this sort of environment with war, and economic聽
recession looming, and all of this previously?
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Yeah. So that's what this chart's about here.
Oh, okay. Yeah.
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So this one is basically saying that the聽
200 month average is this yellow line.聽聽
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And I don't know enough about the 200聽
month average because I haven't been,聽聽
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you know, in stock tradings and all that kind聽
of stuff, but it's a term that's always used and聽聽
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you can go and Google it and look聽
further. But this isn't the first聽聽
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time that it's fallen below the average.
It actually happened here in 2018 as well.聽聽
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So what he was showing was the percentage in聽
which those falls did go down below the average.聽聽
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So way back here, it fell to 63% down. Up here,聽
it fell to 52% down here. It was 46% down.聽聽
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And currently we're at 57% down. So we're聽
still in a pattern, like it's not that we've聽聽
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blown things out, and then it's gone crazier聽
than usual with all these macro events.
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And if we do hit the bottom somewhere in the next聽
couple of months, you know, maybe yes, it might go聽聽
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beyond 63%. But everything else that comes into聽
play is where that 200 week average will still聽聽
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keep mosying on. Ultimately I think it's the聽
next one that shows... So this one starts to show聽聽
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the patterns of these bottoms when they're聽
dropping below the 200 month average.
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So back here, there was a space of the two聽
bottoms of 224 days here between, well,聽聽
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before 2020 halving it was a space of 455 days.聽
So the gap got wider and they're expecting that聽聽
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the gap will be wider again before this next聽
halving. So if you look at what happens between聽聽
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these two gaps of possible bottoms is we聽
could expect, so here's kind of just like a,聽聽
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obviously I'm no expert, it's just what聽
I'm understanding from these analysts,聽聽
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is that this period that we're in right now, and聽
we could probably even say through to the end of聽聽
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the year, at least November, will be a little聽
bit more of a bottom, a bit of sideways.
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And then through 2023, you could probably expect聽
a little bit of a curve. If my mouse is showing on聽聽
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there, we'll be expecting a curve to come up here.聽
And then just before the next Bitcoin Halving,聽聽
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where again, if we look at these blue聽
lines, each time it halves the supply聽聽
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decreases, therefore the demand increases.
So we've got an increase here, an increase here.聽聽
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So we could pretty much say with a relative聽
amount of certainty that we're going to have聽聽
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an increase again, but the figure that's showing聽
here of $41,000 is the next possible bottom.
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But it's not to say that we're not going to have聽
a big rise between that. It may still get back up聽聽
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to, you know, 60, 70, 80 thousand dollars, but聽
it'll probably bottom out again at around $40K,聽聽
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which is kind of cool to think that it's聽
still double where it's at right now.
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And then you can expect it to聽
kind of boom from there.
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So this is just a bit of the deep dive聽
stuff we've been going into this week.聽聽
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I think that's all I've got there.聽
Yep. That's all I've got there.
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