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Rattner: Recovery Not 'V-Shaped,' Major Job Loss Disparities | Morning Joe | MSNBC - YouTube
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let's turn now to president trump and
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his top economic adviser who are touting
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the status
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of the economic recovery here's
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president trump and larry kudlow on
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friday
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america's unprecedented economic
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recovery continues you see what's going
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on
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it's been pretty amazing these gains are
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very very
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uh broad-based there's still too many
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people out
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there's still too much hardship still
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for many unemployed
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and we're working on that and we're
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moving in the right direction
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and that's why today's numbers are
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encouraging and optimistic
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my view of course we are in a v-shaped
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recovery
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it is a self-sustaining recovery joining
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us now former treasury official morning
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joe economic analyst steve ratner so
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larry kudlow there is talking about the
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august jobs numbers steve still going to
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the v-shaped recovery i think they'll
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use that term come hell or high water so
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what does it look like to you is it a v
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well they can call it a v-shaped
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recovery come hell or high water but i
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think the facts are different
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and you'll see here on this first chart
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that i brought that it doesn't quite
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look like a v
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what you see here is an economy that was
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in free fall
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particularly in the month of april lost
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to over 22 million jobs in a space of a
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little more than a month
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and then you can see the beginnings of
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the climb back and in may 2.7 million
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jobs added june 4.8 million but then the
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pace of job additions
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has slowed dramatically in july we added
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only 1.7 million jobs
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and in august these numbers that just
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came out on friday
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were reported as 1.4 million jobs but
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inside that
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there are over 200 000 temporary census
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workers
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uh who will be off the payrolls in
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another month or two
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and so in fact it was really 1.1 million
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jobs so the pace of job recovery
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is actually slowing fairly dramatically
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one other small point which is the 8.4
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unemployment rate that they announced is
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actually really 9.1 percent the
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department of labor itself
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said there was something called a
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misclassification error so that number
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isn't quite as good either
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now let's turn to this question of
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whether we're dealing with a broad-based
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recovery
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of jobs or something that is more narrow
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and so what you can what you can see on
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the next chart are the disparities
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in how different americans are fared and
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this is largely because
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this pandemic or this economic crisis
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didn't hit every industry equally
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obviously things like travel
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recreation restaurants and so on where
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many lower income people of color women
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work
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was hit disproportionately hard and so
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you can see the effects of that on this
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chart
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that if you uh if you are a black person
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11.2 percent of blacks have lost their
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jobs
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compared to only 6.4 percent of whites
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if you had less than a high school
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diploma almost 19
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of those folks have lost their jobs if
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you had a college degree
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you probably didn't lose your job at all
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because virtually none of them
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have actually lost their jobs since this
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started and then between women and men
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again
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steve ratner forget forgive me for
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cutting in
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uh but we're on a delay and i just i i
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just really want to underline this one
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number and shocking let's keep this
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chart up
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so the statistics the the la the the
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bureau
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of labor statistics shows that if you
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have a
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college degree that
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only 0.1
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0 0.1 of people with college degrees
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lost their jobs but almost 20 percent of
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people
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who have less than a college degree lost
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their jobs
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sure joe if you go to a restaurant and
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there's a busboy and a waiter and so on
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maybe
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some of the waiters out of work actors
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with college degrees or whatever
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or you're in the kitchen or you work at
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a theme park as a as a greeter or
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something like that
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what kind of degree do you think most of
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those people have and i would contrast
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that with the people who are on the set
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right now
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i think all of us have college degrees
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and all of us are still employed and
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uh the folks in my industry are still
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employed there has been
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very little job loss in the finance
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industry so far in part because the
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stock market is doing so well
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so yes this is absolutely a recession
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and a recovery
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uh that is hitting people very very
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differently depending upon
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uh their education their whether they're
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of color and whether they're a woman
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wow that's amazing let's go to the last
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chart
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sure and so so then the question is uh
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the president and larry kudlow were
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trying to tell us
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that this is going to be a very fast and
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steep road back
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as we just saw it isn't quite as fast or
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steep as they keep saying it is
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but let's uh we can't we don't have a
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crystal ball but one thing that we can
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look at to get a sense of what might
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happen are
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some announcements of layoffs and so
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what you see on this chart
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is that a number of major companies have
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been announcing layoffs just in the last
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two or three weeks
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united airlines almost 17 000 mgm
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resorts 18 000
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american airlines 19 000 you see the
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airlines there in part because they got
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a 25 billion dollar
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plus bailout but that runs out at the
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end of september and they will start to
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lay off people again
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you see a lot of retailers and people
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like that on this list
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and remember also that in the weekly
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numbers that we look at of new job
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losses they're still running at close to
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a million
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which is 50 higher than any week we ever
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saw before the pandemic
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and so you do see this labor market
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starting to soften
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as as as businesses don't bring back
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everybody and as the pace of reopenings
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as the pace of reopening slows and on
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top of that let's not forget my last
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point
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which is that congress still has not
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acted on a relief package
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and so the 600 checks are are over
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uh the ppp is over the airline aid is
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over
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and so you start you're going to start
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to i see i think
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more layoffs as that filters through
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this economy so there's nothing that
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as we look ahead there's nothing i see
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that says that that
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sort of slow recovery i showed you in
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the first chart is suddenly going to
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accelerate
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all right steve ratner bringing the data
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bringing the charts steve thanks as
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always
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thanks for checking out msnbc on youtube
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and make sure you subscribe to stay up
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to date on the day's biggest stories and
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on any of the videos around us to watch
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more for morning joe
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and msnbc thanks so much for watching
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